New Vanuatu PM still faces uncertainty
Joe Natuman’s election has been greeted with a measure of relief by conservative indigenous ni-Vanuatu who, to a certain extent, had been uncomfortable from day one when Moana Carcasses Kalosil became the first naturalized (non indigenous) prime minister.
Vanuatu social networks such as Yumi Toktok Stret and others are awash with these sentiments.
Carcasses was always going to walk a political tightrope since March 2013, and as pointed out by PiPP in our analysis of the last motion, Carcasses only survived the last no-confidence vote because of a lack of clear choice as to who would lead an alternative government if he was removed.
Natuman was elected unopposed by 40 votes, after a surprise move by the majority of then government members who crossed the floor on the day of the scheduled motion.
Movers of the motion had cited the USD 350 million airport ‘promissory note’ deal, health ministry woes and the immigration scheme luring Chinese investors among a host of reasons for his removal.
Natuman’s election still needs time to settle and further changes to the sharing of the portfolios are expected.
Some of the previous ministers such as Ralph Regenvanu remain (Minister of Lands) but there are some surprise choices like former PM Sato Kilman who has returned as Foreign Minister.
This may complicate some foreign policy decisions given that Natuman has long been sympathetic to the West Papuans while Kilman is perceived as pro-Indonesian.
Although support for West Papua is bi-partisan, many will remember Kilman making a unilateral decision, against a Cabinet directive, to support Indonesia as an observer to the sub regional Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG). Regional capitals may also raise eyebrows given Kilman’s role in expelling Australian federal police and his endorsement of Russia’s proxy Abkhazia.
Already there is talk of a reshuffle as MPs wait for a High Court decision shortly to assess whether Tanna island needs to go to a by-election due to claims of vote discrepancies from the last election. If this happens it will affect Joe Natuman’s hold as PM.
Natuman, as the first Tannese to become PM is likely to retain his seat, but if a by-election is called he will have to temporarily vacate his seat, meaning he can not be PM during this period.
Unlike some regional nations like PNG where there can be no motions for the first and last 18 months of a government, Vanuatu still has no legislation in place to provide for such ‘grace periods’.
Many ni-Vanuatu voters have been frustrated at the constant numbers game of parliament and governments that come and go with seasonal regularity.
