By-elections and voting behaviour in Vanuatu
Pascal Sebastien Iauko has secured the seat left vacant by his late father, Harry Iauko after his untimely death 7 months ago. He romped in with 4,017 votes – over 1300 votes more than his nearest rival.
The jaw-dropping result means Pascal Iauko could possibly be the youngest parliamentarian once sworn-in by the clerk of parliament next month. He beat the likes of former Vanua’aku pati parliamentarian, Moses Kahu, who served two terms in two previous parliaments, as well as National Community Association Party (NCAP) president and businessman Sapi Natonga.
This was how the official results, released by the electoral commission on May 31st look:
• Pascal Sebastien Iauko (Iauko Group) – 4,017
• Moses Kahu (VP) – 2,676
• Sapi Natonga (NCA) – 2,314
• Jimmy Iawar Iauia (UMP Moderate) – 1,806
• Jacques Mariango (UMP) – 1,671
• Kassu Amos Naung (Independent) – 45 votes
What makes the outcome of the Tanna by-election interesting are the range of factors, which often get overlooked, that contributed to the results. This article attempts to highlight these, and how some voters in Vanuatu make their political choices, especially during by-elections.
Firstly, Tanna’s new MP-elect is a complete unknown in Vanuatu politics, although some have suggested that he was close to his late father—intimating he knows what it will take to represent his constituents. Such people see Pascal’s election as a natural progression, more so because of the cultural practice on Tanna, which dictates that when someone with authority dies, a replacement must be appointed soon after—usually someone closest to the leader.
There are others who simply cannot resist the temptation of jumping their guns by criticising his youth on social media. His supporters have since come out in mainstream media to defend him and to call for leniency, requesting critics to give the young leader a chance, as he begins his own political journey.
‘Iauko-effect’
I know for a fact that following the sudden death of his father on December 10 2012, Pascal’s candidacy was debated for some time amongst the elders and chiefs in the Middlebush area from where he hails. Given the urgency of the need to find Iauko’s replacement, in the end, neither his youth, nor his quiet demeanor could prevent him from being thrust into the limelight.
It remains to be seen if he will have the necessary charisma and leadership attributes to lead, but more than that, whether he will be able to shoulder the weight of expectations his father instigated in the minds of his supporters. Iauko Senior was a shrewd politician who was not afraid to upset the Vanua’aku Pati (VP) applecart many times— even if it meant making the headlines for all the wrong reasons. This explains the public interest surrounding Iauko Jnr’s election.
Pascal’s record of over 4000 votes nonetheless reveals a lot about how some voters in Vanuatu make their political choices. I say this because while the results may seem telling, they might not be a complete surprise to those who know a bit of local political history and recognise the trends that have consistently popped up. As has been acknowledged by those close to the main parties —VP and the Union of Moderate Parties (UMP), about a quarter of the 12, 980 voters who exercised their rights on May 27, made their decisions based on their hearts rather than their minds. In other words their choices were based on emotion, as opposed to party policies, ideology or personal political aptitude.
This seems to have been the story over the last 13 to 15 years of observing Vanuatu politics. Voters seem to have rarely based their choices on national governance issues, let alone along party lines during by-elections.
The results also reflect the nature of many Vanuatu societies and the amount of cultural value placed on trust and respect. If anything, the votes amassed by Pascal are related to what could be described as the ‘Iauko-effect’. For me these voters were not necessarily voting for Pascal per se; they were voting for him as a mark of respect for the passing of his father. During 2012 national elections, Iauko Snr was the second most popular politician on Tanna with 1054 votes—thirteen less than the leading candidate, Silas Yatan of the Greens Confederation.
Similar results from the past
Let me now recount some of this history. In 1999 when independence leader and former Prime Minister Fr. Walter Lini died while still a member of parliament, almost the entire constituency of Pentecost decided that the seat would be handed over to his brother, Ham Lini. Once a by-election was declared, Ham only had one opponent to beat and for the first time in Vanuatu’s election history, over 2000 votes were cast for a single candidate.
Even material goods, which could add to ones social standing in the community, seem to have little bearing on election outcomes although there seems to be an underlying assumption that if one was well educated, or that they had good experience in the public service, or had access to material goods, that these would translate easily to political victory. This isn’t always the case as clearly demonstrated by Mr. Natonga’s unsuccessful bid for the third time in a row. I can easily point to many other examples from past elections, of people with extensive experience and sound education, but failed badly on polling day. Local businessman and Vanuatu National Party (VNP) president, Dinh Van Than might also have a thing or two to say on this point; that one can roll-out a massively expensive election campaign, but voters tend to vote more for their truly local candidates.
In addition, while the circumstances might be different, some comparisons could be drawn with Barak Sope regaining his seat in 2001 when he was released from jail after spending only three months of his 3-year sentence for two counts of forgery. Many had thought his jailing was the final chapter of what was indeed a colourful political career. The scripts had to be re-written when after a series of court battles over the effect of his pardoning by then president Fr. John Bennet Bani; Sope reentered Parliament strongly with over 2000 votes. These votes came after Sope’s involvement with international fraudster Amarendra Nath Ghosh and the signing of two controversial bank guarantees worth USD 23 million.
In a similar case, former Prime Minister Sato Kilman’s party, the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) got another chance despite coming under the fraud spotlight in 2008, after becoming entangled in a scam involving an Indo-Fijian national who defrauded the National Bank of Vanuatu of over VUV 40 million. After a court battle, the PPP member for Malekula, Malon Hopsmanda, was jailed, along with a political advisor to MP Kilman. This left the PPP with three MPs in the 52-seat house. In the September elections that same year, the party came back in even stronger, securing two extra seats.
These instances help to demonstrate the point that in Vanuatu, and I would suggest other Melanesian societies, issues of governance and party policies, don’t always matter as much as some would expect when it comes to voting, at least during a by-election. This means the object of nation-building and establishing effective structures of governance, which essentially require quality leadership, only remotely appeal to them.
A foregone conclusion
Based on the above history it appears that it would not have been difficult to predict Pascal’s victory. A total of 12,980 votes were cast —spread among all six candidates, which represented only about 52% of the total registered voters. Much was made of the poor weather conditions on the day. No one highlighted the possibility that due to a widely held perception that the outcome was already somewhat of a forgone conclusion, many voters did not even bother turning up at the polling stations.
Also, there have been suggestions that even voters who regarded Iauko as their arch nemesis because of the bad blood he had with the VP hierarchy, they did not go out to vote out of ‘respect for the dead’ and to allow for his son to win the seat comfortably. According to reports, campaigns were not as intense as they usually would be during an election in Tanna.
The other major factor in the youngster’s win as it turned out to be that the seat was contested by almost a united opposition against a divided government side. The parties that contested, that are part of the present government (VP, Tafea Moderates and UMP) could have easily pooled their numbers together under one candidate if they had the interest of the present government at heart. They obviously did not, which gave the 27-year-old the perfect opportunity to steal the limelight.
After this big win, Iauko Group (IG) is looking toward consolidating into a larger, (and more formal) political party. Formal discussions about who will be leading the party have already commenced. Will this be Pascal’s opportunity to build upon his father’s legacy? Can he take over the mantle, or will he balk? These are questions whose answers might be best reserved for later.
For now, Pascal Sebastien Iauko seems ready to begin where his father left off, in the wake of the largest vote tally since 1979, and notwithstanding the weight of responsibility placed on his young shoulders.
