2012 – a year in review
Elections and politics
In 2012, six Pacific countries went to the polls amidst growing calls for electoral and political reform. In Vanuatu, Sato Kilman returned as prime minister, leading a patchwork coalition. In Tonga, a protracted motion of no confidence in Prime Minister Tu’ivakano took over three months to be resolved. Papua New Guinea’s parliament was dissolved in late May with hopes of a resolution of the months of political and legal wrangling. In all, 46 parties fielded 3,435 candidates to contest the 111 seats in an election marked by irregularities and reports of large financial payouts. Voters in Palau rejected incumbent president, JohnsonToribiong, over corruption allegations. Across the region results for women candidates were discouraging. Trailblazers such as Dame Carol Kidu retired from PNG politics, and only 3 women (out of 115 female candidates) were newly elected. Women currently make up around 5 per cent of parliamentarians across the Pacific.
Around the region we provided informed commentary on the major political events and elections for both domestic and international audiences.The rise of social media was the subject of widespread commentary, especially in the run-up to the PNG elections. Its impact was noticeable, but decidedly mixed. The O’Neill government came under fire for ‘monitoring’ text messages, emails and comments posted on Facebook. The role of new and old media in strengthening political governance is something that we continue to take a keen interest in, and has brought us to work closely with the Pacific Media Assistance Scheme (PACMAS) and media outlets across the region.
There is an emerging global understanding of the political and governance issues that affect state building, particularly where patronage has so long dominated the political landscape. PiPP has an established methodology of engaging political actors in the discussion and actions around strengthening civic engagement. This year we capitalised on Vanuatu’s new national information communications technology (ICT) network to present a landmark public forum that broughtVanuatu’s prime minister and leader of the opposition face to face with the nation. Throughout the year, our MP Face to Face series brought parliamentarians and their constituents together to build stronger issues based relationships and foster informed policy dialogues. We also worked alongside all major parties contesting the elections to produce an analysis of the major policy platforms of each political grouping, which was published in the national press in the lead up to the election. Our work inVanuatu culminated in a joint pilot project with the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) to test the use of SensemakerTM software to collect citizen voices and then show political actors the patterns of need across the nation, and facilitate discussions about what these stories mean in terms of what the state can – and should – provide to its citizens. The analysis of the citizen engagement survey will be published in the first half of 2013, and will inform our future work in this area. While we have used Vanuatu as a test-bed, there is much interest and potential to apply the learning from these civic engagement programmes elsewhere in the region.
Geopolitics and security
The PNG constitutional crisis, which had everyone on edge for six months, and some small-scale disturbances in Solomon Islands were blights on a largely benign Pacific security landscape. Fiji remains under a military government, but progress was made towards a new constitution and planned elections in 2014. West Papua continued to be the most serious conflict zone in the region, with ongoing reports of killings, torture and abuse by Indonesian security forces.The RAMSI mission in the Solomon Islands announced it was starting to withdraw, leaving its ten year peacekeeping mission in the hands of police.
2012 was also the year when global powers signalled a re-found understanding of the strategic importance of Pacific island states. Beyond the rhetoric, some strong symbolism was on display. For the first time a US secretary of state attended the Pacific Islands Forum, as the US recommitted the bulk of its warships into the Pacific theatre. Russia hosted the APEC summit in Vladivostok and declared that it too is a Pacific power. China continued to exert strong influence through its expanding diplomatic presence and aid program.Traditional powers like Australia and New Zealand continue to be influential, but their influence is under challenge. This year’s Pacific Debate gathered some of the region’s key strategic thinkers, and explored island allegiances and foreign policy in the changing geopolitical landscape. The Pacific Debate was broadcast to an international and regional television audience.
As part of our ongoing informed analysis of the geopolitical and security situation, in 2012 PiPP published a discussion paper, Patriot Games – Island voices in a sea of contest, to provide a Pacific perspective on what is being projected onto our islands by the significant powers at play in our region: Australia, United States, China, France, EU, Russia, Indonesia,Taiwan and Japan.
A future without aid?
Melanesia led the way in economic growth in the Pacific, with PNG, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu all doing well in terms of expanding their economies, but continued to struggle to translate economic growth into substantial development gains. Commentators in PNG spoke of a lost decade, and the head of the country’s anti corruption body described Australia as the ‘Cayman Islands’ for PNG, suggesting Australian authorities weren’t doing enough to stop the laundering of corrupt proceeds and aggressive tax avoidance and evasion by multinationals. The World Bank’s Pacific Futures report spoke what was once the unspeakable, with acknowledgement that some Pacific micro states might simply never be viable without ongoing aid programmes. Labour mobility continued to be a hot topic, and the Australian pilot seasonal worker programme became permanent in July, 2012. Unfortunately, numbers have remained low with a cap of 2,600 Pacific island workers a year. The equivalent New Zealand scheme continues to do much better, taking about 7,000 workers a year. Analysis by The Development Policy Centre pointed to conflicting government policies in Australia, which give backpackers an incentive to work on farms, and the prevalence of illegal labour as the underlying reasons for the poor performance of the Australian scheme. The two major donors to the Pacific, Australia and New Zealand, pushed back their targets for increasing aid budgets, while China and the US used aid to demonstrate their renewed interest in the region. Significantly, China provided PNG with a USD 5 billion loan to upgrade the Highlands Highway and other infrastructure. PiPP continues to track economic progress and the aid relationship in the Pacific, and in 2013 will commence a partnership with UNICEF to undertake detailed and accessible budget analysis to spark wider debate and understanding as to how our governments prioritise the spending of public resources.
Regional integration
Regional trade negotiations dragged on in 2012. Talks on the Pacific Agreement for Closer Economic Relations (PACER Plus) continued without any notable progress. Pacific countries extended the date for concluding the drawn out negotiations on the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with the European Union. Negotiations on the existing Pacific Islands Countries Trade Agreement (PICTA) between Pacific countries had more success, with PICTA expanding to include the liberalisation of the service sector.The Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) illustrated the relative strength of sub-regionalism, with significant advancements in the trade in goods, skills exchange and investment between Fiji, Solomon Islands, PNG and Vanuatu. Some Pacific countries also continued bilateral negotiations, including Niue’s attempt to forge a free trade agreement with China.
2012 also brought about increased scrutiny on regionalism, with the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat again coming under the microscope following a review questioning its relevance and ownership. The criticisms came amidst calls to reconfigure regional architecture to better reflect the reality of contemporary Pacific politics and priorities and the increasing appreciation of geographical and interest based sub-regional gatherings. The Pacific Plan will undergo a comprehensive review in 2013, and we will contribute to that process drawing on the insights we have offered since publication of our 2010 discussion paper, Island Dreaming – A fresh look at Pacific regionalism, that set the scene for the current thinking on the topic.
Sustainable development
The 2012 Doha climate change conference was merely a continuation of the existing international impasse. Pacific countries called for more action and a heightened sense of urgency, and also called on other nations to break the deadlock as 2012 brought fatal floods in Fiji and saw 83 families from PNG’s Carteret Atoll displaced to Bougainville. In December, Cyclone Evan battered first Samoa and then Fiji to close out the year. Kiribati used 2012 to search for solutions to climate-driven migration, with Timor Leste making a tentative resettlement offer. Kiribati President Tong also raised the notion of purchasing land in Fiji, although played down the prospect of relocating the population under such a scenario. Our discussion paper, Climate Security – A holistic approach to climate change, security and development, revisited the climate change debate with a focus on the security implications for Pacific island nations.
Pacific leaders also went to Rio for the global conference on sustainable development (Rio+20) with the aim of raising attention on sustainable use of our oceans and green growth. In partnership with UNESCAP, we prepared a number of background papers on green growth potential in the Pacific. While the meeting and preparations helped raise the profile of sustainable development regionally, the conference outcome document was, as anticipated, unambitious and weak, lacking targets and binding mechanisms for implementation. Oceans were also on the agenda at the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Summit, with the announcement of massive new marine parks in the Cook Islands and New Caledonia, and a re branding of the Pacific countries as ‘large ocean’ rather than ‘small island’ states. Amidst controversy over environmental impacts, Nauru became the first developing country to obtain a license to explore the international seabed. Seabed mining was also in the news in PNG where a dispute between the government and Nautilus Minerals stalled operations after 24,000 people petitioned the government in opposition to the Solwara deep-sea mining project.
Fishing nations agreed to reduce the over fishing of white-tip reef sharks and increased the protection of whale sharks, but failed to reduce over-fishing in the world’s largest tuna fishery.The Parties to the Nauru Agreement (PNA) continued to negotiate better financial returns from foreign fishing fleets. PNA members also signalled tougher enforcement of regional fishing rules, which are at times at odds with bilateral deals. China doubled its subsidised Pacific tuna fleet, Palau joined forces with Greenpeace to tackle illegal fishing and Australia considered purchasing unmanned spy drones for Pacific maritime surveillance.
As custodians of the world’s largest ocean and home to some of its most vulnerable countries, the Pacific has a significant stake in redefining the global approach to development, and we will continue to support informed debate and thinking in the lead up to the global discussion on the post-2015 development agenda.
PiPP reached another significant milestone in 2012, celebrating our fifth anniversary. We could not have got to this stage without the ongoing support from our partners around the region and internationally, with whom we share the belief that informed and inclusive debate is a vital part of the development process.
