Next steps on sea level rise in the Pacific

Marshall Islanders living on low-lying windward coastlines were shocked awake in the early morning hours of March 3 when storm surges drove king tide waves into their homes and across roads. Nearly a thousand people were left temporarily homeless in Majuro, as the high tide demolished or damaged dozens of houses, dumping rocks, coral, garbage and other debris in people’s homes and yards, and across the roads.

It was the third high tide to inundate Majuro since February 2013. ‘While king tides are not new to the Marshall Islands, their frequency and ferocity are clearly intensifying,’ said Foreign Minister Phillip Muller. ‘For those of us in the Pacific, silly discussions about the scientific truth of climate change are futile. We see with our own eyes that the oceans are rising, and our tide gauges confirm it. We know there is only one explanation for this unprecedented phenomenon — climate change has arrived.’

Last week, the American Association for the Advancement of Science released a plainspoken report to alert the public to the facts of the climate crisis. ‘Human-caused climate change is happening, we face risks of abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes, and responding now will lower the risk and cost of taking action,’ said the report. The AAAS makes the point that today, 97 percent of all scientists agree that human-caused climate change is a reality.

Leaders from the Marshall Islands in the past couple of years have joined leaders from Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives in speaking international to gain global recognition about climate change and impacts of rising sea levels. If we need more evidence, the Australian government-installed tidal monitoring equipment in Majuro and other locations around the western Pacific now provides a 20-year snapshot confirming that the sea level is indeed rising in the region.

What does this mean for residents of atolls and low-lying areas such as the Rewa Delta in Fiji? And more importantly, what does it mean for governments, which must respond to frequent flooding and consequent damage?

In 2009, USP Suva-based climate researcher Dr. Patrick Nunn said islands should begin talking about relocation now to be prepared for the impact of rising sea levels 25 years from now. His comment underscores a point about government preparation, raising the issue: what should governments be doing domestically in addition to the campaigning globally for action to mitigate climate change?

One of the modern-day realities in the Pacific is overcrowded urban centres. As people migrate into the cities, the crowding puts more people at risk when floods or major storms hit the islands, exacerbating pressure on government services.

As demand for land in the urban centers grows, people build on ever more marginal pieces of property. Seventy-five years ago, most of Majuro’s population lived on largest island at the western end of the atoll. Only a handful of people lived in what is now the “downtown” section, a three-mile strip of land now home to an estimated 20,000 people. No zoning is enforced, which allows people to build anywhere a landowner authorizes a dwelling to be located. Many plywood and tin roof houses, some little more than shacks, have been constructed literally a meter or less from the high tide mark. It’s the reality of urban living in islands such as Majuro and Tarawa in Kiribati. Based on past experience, local residents know where the most likely flood zones will be when there is an extra high tide.

The question this raises is, in light of three flooding incidents that caused damage over the past 13 months in Majuro and several populated outer islands requiring government emergency action, is the government going to continue responding to these emergency situations as one-off incidents? Can they be planned for, and if so how?

An obvious idea is where and how people construct homes. The use of stilts would seem to be a useful step, not only as a flood response mechanism, but also to improve energy efficiency of homes. The “where” is more difficult in the Marshalls because all land is privately owned and local governments have been reluctant to enforce zoning standards. This has led to numerous areas of fire hazard because, in many cases, roofs are touching or less than a meter apart. It has also allowed people to build in areas that repeatedly flood. While it is more difficult to do, another course of action is to alert people building homes in flood zones that they do so at their own risk and will not be eligible for government relief if they suffer damage from high tides.

Interestingly, after the most recent flooding earlier this month, I learned from talking to government officials in Majuro that to date, there has been no flood zone mapping or surveying in the downtown area that is the most affected by floods. While it’s probably true that atoll countries don’t need new scientific data to tell them they should worry about rising sea levels, islands do need to conduct their own research to inform domestic government policies. In addition to the need to document at-risk flood zones in Majuro, the government could engage researchers to focus on coastal erosion trends, with the goal of informing government policy. Why this is important has been demonstrated by atoll research in the Marshall Islands by Dr. Murray Ford of the University of Auckland. A comparison of aerial photographs from the 1940s with today showed that Wotje Atoll, for example, had increased in size (an observation that runs counter to the usual claims about islands disappearing). But, he adds, a shift toward erosion could be occurring, underscoring the need for ongoing research to determine the status of shorelines around the Marshall Islands. ‘I’ve seen some sections of islands erode over a hundred feet, yet other nearby sections are completely stable,’ he said. ‘Any ad- adaptation interventions need sound scientific data to support them.’

Whether it’s addressing regular inundation events or looking at longer-term erosion trends, Pacific islands need to do their homework — in the form of studies and surveys — so government decision makers have relevant information on which to base decisions. As the cost of emergency responses rises, this will be an increasingly critical need for small islands focusing on mitigation and building resilience.