We must not forget that the same laws will apply in the same national parliament and provincial houses of assembly. In the same national and district courtrooms, case law will grow and precedents will continue to be set in the absence of the hard questions that may never get asked about the blatant breaches in our society and adopted system of government.

From 2017 our leaders will (more than ever before) need the knowledge, political will, grace and patience to restore integrity, democracy and the rule of law as a national emergency in order for all else to be rebuilt without exception. The truth is a new government in 2017 will inherit inter-generational debt, a massive deficit and redundant parliamentary rules/standing orders governing important decision-making processes. Not to mention the crumbling sanctity of the National Executive Council (NEC) or cabinet.

They will realise that legislation set up in principle to provide robust governance mechanisms have been misunderstood or ignored by their predecessors. In 2017 a newly elected parliament will discover an exhausted public service, a manipulated police force, an angry defence force, and many broken Papua New Guineans with drought and income starved families and disrupted livelihoods.

Those elected Members of Parliament will find very drained state-owned enterprises, institutions and agencies incapable of operating with only a steady trickle of public funds to deliver wages, health & education or district support according to policies and promises of the past and present. They will find that the much promised revenues from oil and gas have been committed to paying off the current government’s unilateral decisions and therefore debt for unauthorised loans for generations.

New leaders in 2017 will need to navigate a global economic downturn of epic proportions with PNGs development and economic interests at heart. Our new leaders will discover that our broken service delivery system and our overheated economy will need more than elected candidates with tunnel vision.

Those elected will need to be legislators, not aspiring millionaires or public finance managers. Newly elected leaders will require an understanding of serious fiscal discipline, tax and industrial relations reform and economic modelling that reflect PNG’s economic conditions and our revenue-earning potential in sectors other than petroleum and energy.

PNG will need MPs who are humble yet extraordinary thinkers to guide monetary/fiscal, social, cultural and development policy simultaneously to aid a new-look holistic reconstruction strategy focused on understanding that our vast natural resources should never again be left to a single individual who knows no institutional, spiritual, executive or national boundaries. Those new MPs should be held to the universal promise that candidates seek election (and re-election) to be servants to their people not master manipulators of their resources.

All the hopes in online commentary revert to a single assumption that PNG will inevitably have free and fair elections next year. If all we do is dare to dream it’s no longer enough because we will inevitably get what we vote for yet again.

Photo: Sepik Wewak Urban Local Government facebook group

The first part of this blog was published last week. The following is part two:

However, the report fell short of proposing a mechanism to protect the rights of the informal economy participants. Subsequently, there is no mention of the need to properly organize informal economy participants and their activities into groups for the purpose of dialogue and consultation. Section 3(1) of the Informal Sector Development & Control Act 2004 provides for the administering authority to consult (if they wish to) with relevant ward committees, the police force and relevant government agencies responsible for health, physical planning and building, when declaring areas on which informal economy businesses could be conducted. However, experiences thus far have indicated that this has not been the case.

Even if this exists in some provinces there is little evidence to suggest that the administering authorities sought views from informal economy operators or vendors because informal economy, both its activities and operators, are disorganised. Furthermore, given the complexity and cross-cutting nature of the informal economy, provinces need to have special informal economy committees comprising of key stakeholders to deal with these issues. For instance, border provinces such as Vanimo see massive influx of cheap Indonesian goods into Vanimo town and the villages along the highway leading to Batas. These imported goods (with questionable content and quality) make up a large portion of the informal economy in Vanimo and the neighbouring villages. To protect consumers and ensure fair play, the provincial government or the Vanimo Town Authority will have to work with the Border Development Authority, customs, police, NAQIA and others. Therefore, the absence of such a mechanism will do little to change the status quo of the situation.

The report also did not highlight the need for a proper restorative justice mechanism to be in place to deal with cases of harassment and abuse inflicted by enforcers on informal economy participants. The Informal Sector law in its current form is silent on this matter. Section 3(6) of the law only goes as far as saying that “an operator (informal economy vendor/participant) aggrieved by the decision of the Administering Authority under section (4) and (5) may appeal to the District Court”. Yet for most informal economy operators or vendors the Village Court is the most affordable, reliable, reachable and dependable arm of the justice system since it addresses individual and community’s legal concerns through a typically PNG way. The District Courts can be utilized by an interest group or an entity representing the interest of informal economy vendors/operators. Therefore, the report fails to recognize that the infringements done by the informal economy participants (apart from the sale of drugs, counterfeit products and homebrew) are ‘economic crimes’ and not criminal offences that would require the ‘heavy arm of the law’. Thus section 4(2) of the Informal Sector law should be reworded or amended to ensure that the members of the police force are excluded from being appointed as inspectors to police the informal economy.

The NCDC buai ban law demonstrated that administering authorities armed with additional powers can abuse it and in the absence of a voice and an appropriate restorative justice mechanism for the informal economy participants, the informal economy will be suppressed to a point where lives could be lost. Deaths relating to the buai ban have been well-documented in the media. Such actions would thereby defeat the whole purpose of the law. In saying that the law does provide sufficient space as captured under section 3, where the administering authority is required to “adequately notify and welcome feedback from the informal economy operators of its attempt to make changes/determination to the law”. The operator(s) on their part should respond within a set time frame or take the matter to the district court if not satisfied with the authority’s feedback. In addition, inspectors appointed by the administering authority as per section 5(2) should properly notify the informal economy operator/vendor of its decision or actions. However as alluded to earlier, with most of the operators/vendors lacking basic literacy skills and resources (funds) they would need someone to do this for them, or better still an entity like an informal economy market vendor association to represent their common interests and amplify their concerns in order to get the attention of the authorities or policy makers.

Increasing penalty fees and repealing section 18 of the Act, which has a list of laws and their clauses that were excluded, means that informal economy participants will be forced to comply with standards that may be too high for them, especially when most of these participants have very poor literacy skills and lack formal employment to supplement their meager incomes. While the intention is to put forth a progressive and rosy image of the city and urban areas, this should not come at the expense of people’s livelihoods. PNG is now a country that is already experiencing a widening gap between the rich and the poor amidst its most prosperous period in its 40 years of nationhood. Early indications are that the PNG LNG will not be as transformative as it was predicted to be. On the contrary, the emergence of the PNG LNG project has created more problems than solutions for this nation. The cost of basic household goods and services have dramatically increased while the government is being forced to make deals that could possibly cost this country a great deal. At a difficult time when this nation is heading into uncharted waters, the wisest thing to do for the PNG government is to lean on its strengths. The informal economy with almost 80-85% of its population engaged in myriad of activities is its strength. Through the good and bad times, it has helped this nation to ride out crisis after crisis. Giving it its long overdue consideration in the national agenda may well be a game changer for PNG.

Caption: Village men in the Trobriand islands (PNG) work on their carvings. Many informal sector participants are innovators and skilled survivalists. Photo by Ben Bohane – wakaphotos.com

He gave a speech affirming the achievements of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) over the past 15 years and also called for commitments and cooperation in the adopting and implementation of the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

“We should take it as a new starting point to work out a course of equitable, open, all-round and innovation-driven development in the interest of common development of all countries,” he said.

President Xi’s call for the international community to focus on implementation was clear and uncompromising.

He said: “The post-2015 development agenda is a high standard list of deliverables that carries with it our solemn commitment. It is often said that the worth of any plan is in its implementation. I therefore call on the international community to redouble their collective efforts for the joint implementation of the post-2015 development agenda in the interest of cooperation.”

Toward the end of his speech, President Xi stated that China is ready to work with “relevant parties to move forward” the implementation of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative.

President Xi reiterated that China has basically realized the MDGs by lifting 439 million people out of poverty and making remarkable progress in areas of education, health and women’s welfare.

“China’s development has not only improved the well-being of the 1.3 billion-plus Chinese people, but also given a strong boost to the global cause of development,” President Xi said.

Since his speech at the United Nations, President Xi has gone on an official visit of the United Kingdom, not only engaging in trade and investment talks with the British government but also warmly welcomed by the pomp and ceremony of British royalty.

The media heralded President Xi as the most significant and most powerful Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping.

The Belt and Road initiative

China has released a vision for peaceful cooperative development based on a two thousand year old trade route known as the Silk Road in which there were social and cultural exchanges linking the major civilizations of Asia, Europe, and Africa.

But what is different about the Belt and Road initiative and activities from that of the creation of another regional trade block with China as leader?

In early October, the Chinese Communist Party hosted in Beijing over 60 political party leaders and representatives from the Asia-Africa-European region, accompanied also by a media forum of journalists and media practitioners from the region.

The summit was called the Asian Political Parties’ Special Conference on the Silk Road. The theme of the summit was the Silk Road trade and development co-operation concept.

The Belt and Road initiative proposed in Beijing 2015 was endorsed and adopted by the political leaders of the countries that met and consulted together in Beijing.

The Silk Road was a trade route that linked China and its immediate neighbors with the countries of Asia, Africa, and Europe. It is China’s pro-active attempt to build a Eurasian economic belt, and extend the Silk Road to the rest of the world, over land and sea.

But ‘Belt and Road’ is not just a proposal for cooperative economic partnership and development. China is already engaged in building infrastructure, creating a ‘Belt and Road’ fund and investment bank, creating many development projects, and more importantly establishing a consensus among the countries of Asia, Africa, and Europe, that Belt and Road is the pathway to the future.

With over 60 countries with political parties endorsing and adopting the Belt and Road Beijing initiative, the maritime ‘road’ that links to the Pacific islands is very much a part of this massive global plan for economic and social cooperative development.

The Belt and Road initiative is not confined to economic cooperative development but extends also to the social and cultural exchanges that would advance peace in a new world order.

Speaking in support of China’s efforts, Yong Rui, famed host of CCTV’s English Dialogue Program remarked in Beijing: “China is not just a major economic power. It is also a major civilization.”

The point is, economic development does not happen in a vacuum, but also allows parties to work together for the common good of their respective societies in every area of development ranging from sports and entertainment, cultural exchanges, as well as the advancing of common values that are part of social development.

Trade in the past two millennia was in silk, spices, porcelain, paper, noodles, and other things. But the Chinese have taken this concept and framed it into the Belt and Road initiative which will link not only the former regions of the Silk Road but all the countries of the world through the 21st century Maritime Silk Road linkages.

And even though the Chinese economy has slowed down from double-digit figures to a stable 6.5% growth, it is still the fastest growing economy, and is just behind the United States as the second largest economy in the world.

The Chinese still speak optimistically about this slowdown as a “cooling off” period to allow its economy to consolidate.

The Chinese insist that the Belt and Road initiative is not just another Chinese project but rather a peaceful cooperative development effort with other countries, working at a ‘win-win’ outcome.

As for what the Pacific region offers, we bring into the Belt and Road vision and partnership the world’s largest ocean, the world’s biggest tuna stocks, multi-billion dollar reserves of oil, gas and sea-bed minerals. And that is before we start to speak of tourism in one of the most beautiful and relaxing destinations in the world.

China and its larger development partners are also very aware of the fact there is marine wealth in the Pacific as well as something that money cannot buy – the relatively peaceful co-existence and relationships that are ever present in the Pacific region.

Each Pacific island nation will need to determine what and how to participate in the partnership, but there is also the need for collective dialogue and cooperation with China.

There is a lot that could be done to achieve a favorable outcome and due to the geopolitical power shifts taking place in our world today, our future may end up being defined by our partnership with China.

Caption: “Build friendship”: a Chinese naval ship displays a friendly banner during a port call in Port Vila, Vanuatu 2010. Photo by Ben Bohane/wakaphotos.com

Furthermore, if provided with the right environment, it could unleash entrepreneurialism and innovation that is abundant among many Papua New Guineans but lethargic due to lack of support. One should only take a bus ride to the infamous Gordon Market or travel up into the Kakaruk (chicken) Market in Goroka or elsewhere to witness the vibe of energy and salesmanship at play. This is what the law aims to nurture but in compliance with appropriate minimum standards to protect consumer welfare and generally minimize its negativity.

Yet the challenge will once again fall on the shoulders of the government to ensure that the intention of the law is realized. Already the government is urged in the report to step up and provide leadership in administering the law as well as providing essential public goods and services to encourage the development of the informal economy in PNG. So far the government has failed miserably in this area although it has introduced a policy and a law to address issues affecting the informal economy. This reinforces the sad reality that implementation and enforcement have always been a challenge for the PNG Government. Most Local Level Governments are struggling to function effectively in most areas of the country due to lack of support both in terms of resources and limited understanding of their functions and responsibilities. The report alluded to the fact that most LLGs that were consulted had no idea about the existence of the law although it is a national law.

At the national agency level the report found that no oversight was provided making way for administering authorities to make laws without alignment to the Informal Sector Development & Control Act 2004. In most cases administering authorities simply turned a blind eye on the law. For instance, in 2012 the courts making reference to the Informal Sector Development & Control Act 2004 restrained the Lae City Council from implementing its decision to close down informal markets in the city. In the case of National Capital District Commission (NCDC), buai producers and political leaders in Central Province issued threats challenging the legality of the buai ban law although this has not come to pass. If the ban was contested in the courts with reference made to the Informal Sector Development & Control Act 2004, the outcome could have changed the dynamics of the informal economy in PNG.

This is where the Constitutional Law Reform Commission’s (CLRC) foresight in introducing a ‘modal law’ is important as it bypasses the difficulties that could have eventuated if a national law superimposes itself with no regard to the administrative set up of certain provinces like NCDC. By allowing provinces to have the freedom to make necessary amendments to the modal law to suit their unique situation, it is hoped that they will effectively control negative aspects and promote the positive side of their informal economy. By having the Department of Community Development & Religion as the lead agency providing oversight on the law, it is envisaged that the amendments will be made with due respect to the spirit/intention of the national law as well as in alignment with the national informal economy policy.

The department to its credit has already embarked on a restructure (with no progress as yet) that will see a new section dedicated to coordinating the implementation of the policy and the law. Yet questions are being asked if this arrangement will yield any tangible results. The department itself is still reeling from the leadership tussle which transpired two years ago which has seen the department fragmented into factions as staff took sides. The aftermath of this battle can still be seen today with most of its offices half empty and manned by only few dedicated officers. In this environment there is no guarantee that the law will hit the ground running once it is passed by the government. This is where the department with the aid of CLRC should explore options that will lead to the effective implementation and administration of the policy and the law. One option would be for the department to quickly work towards establishing a stand alone mechanism, like an office within its structure. Such a set up, apart from speeding things up, would allow the department to effectively reach out (going beyond its traditional role as a social welfare department) to other stakeholders whose mandate or policies are related to aspects of the informal economy policy and Act.

On the other hand the informal economy participants for their part, misunderstood the law the first time it was passed by parliament, subsequently giving rise to the proliferation of diverse sets of informal economic activities, some of which posed serious health and safety risks. This meant that balance needed to be found in the law to ensure that the growth of the informal economy is controlled to minimize its harmful effects. The informal sector law in its current form in fact advocates for this. This is contrary to the views that it ‘gave fire’ to the widespread chaos that is unfortunately the hallmark of PNG’s informal economy. The draft report to the credit of the CLRC, has reinforced this idea with penalties raised depending on the severity of the offence, which is determined by taking into consideration an informal economic business activity’s impact on the environment, hygiene, health, safety and the nature of the items sold such as whether it is addictive and other factors. Furthermore, it has inserted a provision to deal with betelnut-related issues which now imposes a much tougher penalty for irresponsible chewers.

(To be continued next week…)

Caption: Fresh produce at the local food markets in Port Moresby, PNG – John Conroy

It has been over a year since your declaration of a ‘Decade (2014-2024) of Sustainable Energy For All’ so we are hereby sharing our ideas about the topic.

Mr. Secretary-General, it is apparent to us that as ‘island nations’ we have one vote only in the United Nations and we have no economic power to engage the issues of climate change. This is not a statement seeking pity or money; this is a statement of fact. Island nations contribute very little to climate change, yet we are the ones losing our land.

Mr. Secretary-General, we ask that you consider our words and share them with others with the resources to combat climate change. We know there are still people out there saying climate change is not happening. Well, we can’t speak for people who live in larger cities and continents and have no clue about what is going on in our part of the world. We can only speak for ourselves. We are seeing greater changes to our environments. High tides that used to come to the shore-line next to the mangroves or next to the rock-walls now come into our porch areas and recently, they have come into our homes. We see subtle changes that we cannot explain. We will leave that for the scientific community to answer. Our place here is to bring the voice of island nations to show what we are going through in the midst of a global political posturing.

Island nations are full of creative, loving, hospitable and caring human beings. We are not characters in travel magazines, or some out of the way noble savages. Let us remember the nuclear testing in the Marshall Islands which happened years ago but which has seen women continue to give birth to babies bearing the effects of radiation. We are not some footnote in history news reels saying we “agree for the benefit of humanity.” Now humanity is benefiting and island nations are forced to be at the front line of the climate change debate. Mr. Secretary-General, once again we are not writing these words to gain your sympathy, we write them to remind you and the United Nations that every action has a consequence, and we are experiencing it right now.

So we propose a simple vision, one that is taken from the last sentence of the preamble of the Constitution of the Republic of Palau which can be used as a road map to create technology, policy and action to deal with climate change. The preamble states, “In establishing this Constitution of the sovereign Republic of Palau, we venture into the future with full reliance on our own efforts and the divine guidance of Almighty God.” We want to highlight how we can venture into the future with full reliance on our own efforts. Remember the old saying, “Give a man a fish and he eats for a day, teach him to fish and he will eat every day.” This is what we propose to create as the vision for the decade.

Climate change and environmental issues can be debated till every expert have had their say but it will not address our problem. We need solutions now and we propose to focus on the following three areas: Human development; low technology solutions; and creating an example of excellence.

Too often we put too much emphasis on economic development believing that a strong economy will create a better society. I beg to differ with this easy and lazy analysis of island nations that we only need to have a more transparent government, a vibrant economy, and a better tax structure to bring in foreign investors and then everything will be better. What this does is it continues to create dependency, not self-reliance. We know no one can be isolated from the global economy but we need to set policies that every nation will try to do for themselves in the best way possible, then incorporate new technology, economy and practices to support what they are already doing. In his book “Foreign Flower” Peter Lamour warns us of the danger of taking one institution and placing it in another country and expecting success. Instead we must seek to understand and respect the values, culture, and practices of a particular nation so an appropriate system can be put in place.

We must focus on human development by training future leaders to be creative, energetic and skilled. These young men and women will be trained to have the skills to address the problems that confront our future. As Albert Einstein said, “we can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” We need to ensure future leaders have a sound thinking process so they can adequately solve our problems.

Secondly, we need to create and endorse low-tech solutions that consider our environment and our resources. This can be accomplished when we take our first goal, human development and identify the priority fields for future leaders. We need to encourage our children to become engineers, scientists, teachers or agriculturalists and who can incorporate traditional knowledge with contemporary technology. The best example is of a young engineer who is able to create a diverse low-tech alternative energy solution for island nations. The outline of this system will be how to coordinate our environmental resources; sun, ocean, wind and bio-diesel to create a power generating plant that will not depend on imported fossil fuels and can meet the demands of a growing economy. The system can use solar panels and bio-diesel to maintain the minimum energy required to operate the power plant. The bio-diesel can be produced by creating an aquaculture plant like algae or seaweed for bio-diesel that uses the ocean’s tidal, wave, current and thermal energy to support the production of power.

Thirdly, we can use the wind with kites and wind turbines to help in power production. Other products that can be developed with low-tech solutions are food and transportation. Specifically the call to eat organic local foods is both economically and medically sound and it is better for the environment as it limits our carbon footprint. We could also revive the canoe tradition to remind people we can travel without fossil fuels. Again, these are just ideas but they can happen.

Finally, Mr. Secretary-General, we need to create a model nation that will be a global example of excellence. Albert Bandura’s work on behavior states, “If you want to change how [people] behave, you have to first change how they think.” Mahatma Ghandi also said, “you must be the change you wish to see in the world.” We envision a vibrant and creative future generation that can come up with this type of alternative energy plan and put it to action. This will be a good example the United Nations can honor and point to as a starting point.

Our islands have abundant natural resources that we can draw energy from in a sustainable way – help us to help ourselves and create low-tech solutions for energy provision that can help mitigate the effects of climate change we are already experiencing.

Thank you.

Photo credit: Last months heavy downpour in Kiribati resulted in the overflow of the pond in Anraei Bonriki leading to the flooding of many homes – Humans of Kiribati

The prevalence of corruption is the direct cause of pervasive poverty in our region. Some may contend that poverty is the cause of corruption. I hold a contrary view. I come from a country richly endowed with natural resources, yet the majority of our people live in abject poverty. Corruption is the direct cause of poverty in my country and the same goes for many Pacific island countries. The failure to meet most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is a testament to that.

The excess effects of corrut to that.

The excess effects of corruption does spread beyond the borders. They take the form of refugees, money laundering and other illicit activities. The digital world has changed the dynamics of the world map so that today, transactions can be conducted at the click of a keyboard or the tap of an iPhone. Our jurisdictional differences are becoming less of a barrier for those wishing to conduct illicit financial transactions.

Today, we are witnessing a growing trend, though not uncommon, whereby those in power use that power to enrich themselves and their cronies at the expense of the people. And when the anti-corruption institutions hold them to account, they refuse to submit. They use their powers and state resources to subjugate anti-corruption measures and avoid scrutiny. Most recently some of the most telling examples of threats to the rule of law, democracy, security and prosperity in our region include:

• The extraordinary efforts to obliterate anti-corruption forces to protect one person in Papua New Guinea;
• The acting President of Vanuatu pardoning himself and 13 other members of parliament after being convicted of bribery, even when the matter is pending sentencing; and
• The bribery scandal involving the Nauruan prime minister, his justice minister and an Australian phosphate company and the alleged actions by the Nauru Government to terminate the visa of the Chief Justice.

We have seen examples of how corruption transcends national borders, for example:

• The forgotten case of Australian companies and advisors implicated in diverting K100 million of PNG Motor Vehicle Insurance Ltd funds;
• The revelations by Australian authorities that at least AUD200 million of PNG corruption proceeds are laundered or invested in Australia every year;
• The recent findings of the Financial Action Task-Force that Australia is becoming a hotspot destination for property investment using illicit funds, mostly coming from Asia-Pacific countries;
• The recent revelations by SBS Dateline program of how Australian lawyers are involved in laundering corruption proceeds into Australia; and
• The recent revelations by Sydney Morning Herald of an Australian oil company, the Australian branch of an international bank and Australian lawyers involved in structuring a predatory loan arrangement.

Many of these examples have highlighted how the people who have been exposed in these corruption scandals have no trouble transferring and living off their ill-gotten gains. With access to Australia, for example, many have access to quality health care and education whilst at home the robbed majority continue to suffer in abysmal conditions.

In saying this, I am also conscious of the fact that in most developing countries, apart from simple survival corruption, most of the high-level corruption are facilitated by and benefit those in power. If corruption-free and good governance are the values and standards we want to see reflected in our neighbourhood, we should live for and fight for their worth. Although it may come at a price. Few may not like it, but the victimised majority will appreciate our efforts. Based on my personal experience, I can vouch for this.

Australia, as member of the G20 and the OECD among others, has obligations under various international treaties, memberships and agreements. Most countries in the Pacific have adopted the UN Convention against Corruption (UNCAC). While progress has been made to establish an APEC Network of Anti-Corruption Authorities and Law Enforcement Agencies, I am unaware of a regional framework in the Pacific Islands Forum to combat corruption and money laundering. Perhaps that may be an agenda for the next forum leaders discussions?

So the question is, when does corruption in one country really become a matter for regional leaders?

One can trumpet the robustness of its own domestic mechanisms but if that ‘robust’ system is not detecting and combating corruption and money laundering more widely, then that system is a problem in itself. Or is it just a case of lacking political will to act?

This is an extract of Mr. Sam Koim’s presentation to the Voices for Justice conference held at Parliament House, Canberra on 13 October 2015.

Today, it is easy to assume that it is a case of ‘the same old story.’ Simply replace Chan with Somare, and Skate with O’Neil. With falling oil prices, the government is short of liquidity and trying to mortgage the future of its people for cash today; the kina is in decline, and the Central Bank holding back foreign currency. High inflation and the effects of another El Nino event are ramping up food prices.

But some things are different now. For starters Port Moresby is a cosmopolitan city, so physically transformed it is barely recognisable from what was only twenty years ago. Despite all of the challenges, the economy has managed to absorb a population that has more than doubled since independence. There is a significant middle class of Papua New Guineans who are educated, vocal and more than capable of both demanding change, and also determining what that change should be. Even a casual glance at social media shows the depth of talent and debate.

Whilst it remains true that much of the development benefits have been focussed on Moresby, and too little outside of the capital, the country remains blessed with immense cultural and mineral wealth. It also remains a country where hope, courage and luck can always improve the situation. The question is whether these ingredients are enough to enable the country to overcome its current challenges?

As always, there is a core group of observers who seem to view the current economic and political malaise as a hopeless situation. Today’s story – whispered in private or told via social media, but never quite openly discussed – is that through the egregious use of the nation’s wealth in order to benefit the few in Waigani, Prime Minister Peter O’Neil has managed to establish the sort of ‘de-facto’ dictatorship nobody thought possible in a Melanesian state. With next to no political opposition at home, the Manus detention centre has been a brilliant mute on Canberra. As has been the notion, held by some in the Australian capital, that a stable semi-authoritarian regime in Port Moresby is preferable to a government that changes often – albeit democratically. No matter how hard the prime minister may prod DFAT, they are simply unable to respond. With such a free hand, O’Neill has managed to enhance his reputation with his regional neighbours. His international standing will continue to be bolstered as PNG prepares to host the APEC summit in 2018.

O’Neill has managed to keep a hold on power by raiding the numerous cash pots available to the government and by mortgaging the country’s future resource base. This strategy has so far enabled the government to run debt defying budget deficits. The plan to fill the current hole is a combination of a half billion dollar foreign currency loan, the sale of shares to landowners in the National Petroleum Company PNG (NPCP) and potential revenue from the sale of Oil Search to Woodside. Any money raised through the takeover over of Sustainable Development Program (SDP) will be a bonus. These funds are necessary to continue the superficial building (and rebuilding) of roads and other infrastructure in the capital and also funding the K10 million district funds overseen by MPs; thereby keeping the crony capitalists and political elite satisfied.

However, in the same way that much of the analysis twenty years ago was overly simplistic and lacking in context so too is this story. For starters it is hard to place the entire blame for the current state of the economy purely on the current government. Many previous administrations pursued similar strategies, just perhaps not as effectively. Also very few economist predicted the rapid decline in commodity prices or the drastic impact of El Nino on agricultural production. Were it not for these factors, some of the current economic constraints, especially in terms of limited liquidity, would not be as severe.

The private sector and the donors, smelling loans, have been falling over themselves to be the lender of choice and have therefore deliberately not been up front with the government for fear of losing business. Australia has been almost totally silent in terms of the underlying economic situation, with the exception of a few advisers within government. The government itself, meanwhile, simply points to recent GDP growth rates as a sign that things will get better. It has been left to a few independent thinkers to point out that ‘you cannot eat GDP growth’ and that current levels of borrowing has a price that the people of Papua New Guinea just cannot afford – inflation.

There is a phrase used amongst Pacific civil servants – policy moonwalking – which, like the famous dance by Michael Jackson, refers to when the policy of government appears to be moving forward, but in fact is actually going backwards. It appears as if O’Neill’s policy moonwalkers have failed to accept and adapt to the radical change in circumstances. Rather they continue to pursue the strategy of relying on short term financing in the vein hope that things will get better. These analysts are correct in that the country still has many long-term assets that can be mortgaged, but they have missed the fact that with oil prices falling so sharply this strategy can actually be a trap – in that the more you borrow now, the more desperately you have to borrow in the future. The price is inflation, which is fuelling the looming crisis. By printing money to finance the massive deficits, the government has reduced the value of the kina, and this is what has made imports such as rice more expensive. While the economists and academics can argue all day, the reality is that what people can afford to eat has drastically decreased. You don’t need to be an economist to forecast the situation – simply ask any Papua New Guinean. The drought and frost in the highlands has made the situation worse, and while the foreign owners of the hydroponic farms might be benefiting, the population are suffering and this will eventually lead to frustration, anger and potentially violence.

It is unlikely the ‘foreign bond’ of half a billion dollars can be issued unless, like the UBS loan, it is secured against a national asset. At this stage it is not clear what that asset would be. In the same way the government’s financial expectations of the sums of money they would receive from the landowners taking an increased equity in NPCP seems far removed from the financial reality, and all indicators are that the landowners are receiving rational private advice in this regard. So with the state owned enterprises seemingly in debt, and the Central Bank and government building up short term liabilities, the most likely outcome is that – despite the long term outlook for the country being sound – in the short term the government will have no money and inflation will get worse. The potential debt burden is made even worse by the hidden liabilities in terms of debts owed by government entities that don’t yet have audited accounts, but which could still be a drain on future budgets.

There will ultimately have to be some sort of political ramification. What the trigger will be nobody knows, but the tension amongst the rural and urban poor is noticeable. The prime minister might have control over the heads of the army and the police, but if civil servants and people are seriously poor – as seems evident now – the people of Papua New Guinea can and will effect democratic change. Whether it be a motion of no confidence, based on the fact that O’Neill can no longer deliver the financing necessary to keep political stability, or a result of the numerous court actions against him, or a massive turnover at the polls – something will have to give.

As the poor increase in numbers and go ever more hungry, while the political elite continue to flaunt their wealth on the streets of Moresby, the real concern is whether this change will be brought about civil or political unrest.

The United States Multilateral Fisheries Treaty with the Pacific Island Parties was effected in 1987. The United States government uses this multilateral agreement as the only channel to which US assistance in the form of aid is directed to the Pacific parties. In that era Pacific island states had just gained independence and this source of funding has been essential to their economy to meet public services and other state matters.

Given the access provided for by the Treaty in its early years, the United States dominates the rich fishing grounds of the Pacific islands, more specifically the Central Western Pacific waters. They enjoy enormous profits recorded in catch compared to the operational cost and the access fees paid to the Pacific islands resources owners.

The Treaty was extended twice to 2003 and later to 2013 after its initial five-year period lapsed before the re-negotiations process was done. It shows that parties see benefits from these ocean tuna resources, however the question of fairness and parity were never ever seriously considered. For the Pacific islands parties, the rationale behind the connotation of regionalism was the issue, and the conditions for equity based on resource ownership and the equation of appropriate sharing was not considered. The Treaty was therefore to the advantage of the United States, in that it established a sphere of influence which grips the region for the purpose of economic assistance in return for fishing dominance.

Therefore from analysis, the scenario we get is one that is awkward towards Pacific states when realizing that few of them which are rich in tuna resources must give up their resources to the Treaty so that other fellow sister Pacific states will also benefit from the economic assistance associated with the Treaty. Pacific Parties are therefore pad-locked with the concept of regionalism under the dictation of this multilateral arrangement.

The enforcement of the PNA Vessel Day Scheme (VDS) becomes the most outstanding leverage that balances the US monopoly in the fishing industry under the Multilateral Treaty. The eight Parties to the Nauru Agreement own more than fifty percent of global Skip Jack Tuna stock, and the other valuable Tuna species such as Big Eye and the Pacific Blue and Yellow Fin. And as the CEO of PNA Dr. Transform Aqorau once mentioned, “The PNA group is the single most influential grouping that has shaped International fisheries”. This is how we now define the new authority over resources in the PNA waters.

PNA therefore answers the issue of equity which was displaced prior to the enforcement of the VDS, however the diplomacy of the Treaty will centre much around the prospect of exerting influence on the uncertainty of regional solidarity if the Treaty was to be abolished, meaning the question of regionalism through resource management will have to be compromised without the economic assistance provided for under the multilateral arrangement. And that would be the last bargaining chip for the US towards the Pacific parties as a regional grouping. If it goes to that extent, other Pacific parties will have no choice but prepare to accept the removal of the economic assistance they have benefitted from over the past years.

Such a scenario can happen, but on the condition that it does not destabilize regional integration. If the United States prepares to unplug the Treaty, non-VDS Pacific parties must prepare to take another approach to substitute the economic assistance they receive from the Treaty. PNA members on the other hand will use its authority to determine the course of fishing activities in its rich waters, meaning the United States dominance of the fishery will fall short to an avenue where competition (among other Distant Water Fishing Nations (DWFN) to maximize profits will go alongside sustainable fisheries that ensures win-win returns between resource owners and the industries/government of the DWFN including the United States. Fisheries can become a foreign policy not only for DWFN to Pacific islands parties but also the other way around, a situation where resource owners will no longer be spectators in the exploitation of the resources they own.

The SPC-EU project states on its website that it is ‘helping Pacific Island countries to improve the governance and management of their deep-sea minerals resources in accordance with international law, with particular attention to the protection of the marine environment and securing equitable financial arrangements for Pacific island countries and their people.’

The goal is laudable. The question is, can a donor that represents countries with mining interests protect and advocate for the rights of Pacific islands? It sounds like a serious conflict of interest, much as the PACER (Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations) negotiations are, with Australian funding providing training to Forum island officials, paying for island officials to attend PACER negotiations, and financing an Office of the Chief Trade Advisor. All of this creates its own industry, a legion of trade officials who have a vested interest in promoting trade negotiations, whether or not they are, in fact, in the interests of the different island nations.

Face the facts: Deep-sea mining potentially offers a serious economic opportunity for the islands, but one that by its nature is not sustainable for the long-term and comes with possibly serious environmental consequences. In addition, experience with onshore mining is limited to a few Melanesian countries, while deep-sea mining experience and legislation is embryonic, at best.

Why keep reinventing the wheel when we have experience and examples of regional cooperation that works? The best of these are in fisheries. The Forum Fisheries Agency is a good example of a regional body that has provided solid management, monitoring and surveillance for the Pacific tuna fishery that has worked for the interests of the islands. But the Parties to the Nauru Agreement (PNA) is probably the body that is the most relevant for deep-sea mining.

Instead of going it alone, with each country establishing its own legislation and negotiating deals with mining companies individually, why not use the PNA formula that shows how rights can be managed and, through a unified effort, maximized for all parties.

What should be happening at the regional level is discussion aimed at establishing regional or sub-regional agreements so that island nations can agree to minimum terms and conditions for deep-sea mining. Drawing on the experience with the Pacific tuna fishery, the region could be working to set minimum terms and conditions that could be enacted through implementing arrangements to ensure national legislation is not undermined and small island economies are not played off against each other and exploited inequitably. This is exactly what PNA is now doing with the tuna industry.

Given that the International Seabed Authority, which was established by the United Nations to regulate these activities and develop a mining code for management and monitoring of deep-sea mining, is already reported to be issuing licenses for the Pacific, the islands need to get a better grip on what is potentially a multi-billion dollar industry, with significant side effects. Do the islands get a decent return and find ways to successfully manage environmental problems?

It seems so obvious that what is needed is a Forum Leaders declaration to address deep-sea mining at the regional level, where agreed-to regional strategies can ensure fair returns for the islands.

The ability of PNA’s eight members to maintain unity in setting minimum prices for fishing days and enforce management measures for the tuna fishery has resulted in the PNA skipjack fishery holding the highest global certification for sustainability through the Marine Stewardship Council, setting a minimum price for access to fish, controlling fishing effort, establishing compulsory satellite-based surveillance, enforcing 100 percent observer coverage of purse seiners, and implementing other requirements. Of even more relevance to deep-sea mining is PNA’s restriction limiting the transshipment of catch to export carrier vessels in designated ports, where species composition and harvest tonnage are checked and verified. This also provides significant additional direct and indirect economic benefits to the island ports. Similar transshipment requirements should apply to deep-sea mining ore carriers so independent inspectors can monitor and verify volumes and types of ores being exported.

This is unlikely to happen in the absence of a regional approach to mining. Instead of continuing down the path of individual islands negotiating their own separate deep-sea mining arrangements with all the poor governance opportunities this presents, what does the Forum region have to lose by convening a meeting with the goal of establishing a regional deep-sea mining agreement? Member countries through PNA have experience in developing successful regional agreements that establish rules and minimum standards for resource management and exploitation — to the great benefit of their members. Let’s use this experience for the benefit of all the islands in the area of deep-sea mining.

With the Forum summit in Papua New Guinea just six weeks away, this is an initiative that needs the leaders attention and action.

Photo caption: The Parties to the Nauru Agreement management of the Pacific skipjack tuna industry has resulted in a five-fold increase in revenue to its eight members since 2010.

But there appears to be proper support in the pipeline in the form of long-term approaches, aimed at recovering and building more resilient forestry and fishery sectors. This article proposes some recommendations that could revive these two sectors.

A series of assessments by the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD) indicate that natural forests and small-scale plantings in agro-forestry systems were all affected. Based on the Vanuatu Resource Information System (VANRIS), the total commercial volume of timber that was damaged is estimated at some 50,000 cubic meters. These commercial volumes are from high value indigenous tropical hardwood tree species.

We need to support communities with a total of 10 medium-scale saw mills that will operate to extract timber from the logs which will be used to rebuild homes, with the excess to be supplied to the local markets to create employment and income-generation activities for the local population. DARD has offered to provide trainings to assist in facilitating markets for timber.

DARD has supported tree planting for some time. Most farm trees on the island have been planted on recommendation of the DARD. One of them is the Vanuatu Sandalwood. It is a high value tree species and has been earning a profitable income for growers. Other indigenous multipurpose tree species that have been planted include the Terminalia, the Copal gum, and the Basswood Whitewood.

But, as most of the trees were planted only recently by most farmers and were only moderately wind firm, assessments ndicate that some 80% of the trees were badly damaged, and need to be replanted. The recommendation is to establish a total of 20 nurseries with the capacity of producing a total of 50,000 seedlings annually. The 20 nurseries have been targeted to produce an estimated total of 1,000,000 million seedlings for the next three years.

A total of 20 demonstration plots of Agro-forestry will be established at each nursery site for farmers and annual field days for farmers to inspect the plantings. The agriculture sector on Tanna Island is blessed with a rich volcanic soil and the sector is slowly progressing and recovering.

There has been some support in the distribution of planting materials on the island, however the potential also remains to access other traditionally selected cultivars of root crops from northern Vanuatu (which wasn’t so affected by Pam) to hasten the replanting process.

Potato planting has also generated interest from Tanna farmers in the wake of cyclone Pam. This is an indication of good progress in ownership and the determination by local farmers and communities. The recommendation is to utilise the 20 Forestry Nursery location and with the support from DARD to deploy planting materials of the selected cultivars to supply to farmers and duplicate and deploy to farmers.

A long-time serving root crop specialist, Dr Vincent Lebot, has stated that ‘Vanuatu has no food security,’ pointing out that traditional societies in the past employed clever agro-forestry farming systems, and when this was lost, Vanuatu lost its resilience to natural disasters. In Tanna, food security is a challenge, particularly in terms of access to protein. While there is available livestock, the majority of people on the island can’t afford enough protein and beef. Protein sources need to be heavily invested on to provide for the population.

A study by the Food Agriculture Organisation (FAO) on fisheries found that Vanuatu is rated as one of the lowest in the region in terms of accessing and consuming fish. A recent development in the fisheries sector is the promotion of fishpond farming of an introduced exotic species called Talapia. The only challenge with this farming technique is the availability of water, but the good news is the species does not need running water as it can easily survive in water with limited oxygen. Most farmers involved in fishpond farming for the Talapia species have been encouraged to use rainwater, as it is best for the species.

The recommendation here is to establish 10 central breeding centres for fishpond farming and to deploy some 100 fish farms so that interested farmers wanting to access the fish stock can purchase from here. The department of fisheries has conducted similar work in the northern region, which proved to be highly successful. Fishpond farming has only recently commenced on Tanna, but we hope to see the same results. Demand for protein and fish alone on Tanna is huge, so developing fishponds into a dependable sector and promoting the development of sustainable forestry will help develop local production capacity to meet post cyclone demands and ensure long-term sustainability.