In 2015 cyclone Pam devastated Vanuatu, with Tanna being one of the worst-hit islands. Women bore the brunt of the devastation, forcing them to seek out new ways to survive. A realisation began to dawn that it was time for them to stand up and speak for themselves. After numerous meetings with women groups, the first ever Tanna Women’s Forum was held in October 2015. Over 1,200 attended the meeting where women demanded change to a political system that held them down, tied them in poverty, and gave them no opportunity to speak out. It was a breakthrough moment as many of these women have lived under threat all of their lives.

The women put their heads together and agreed it was time someone took the lead. I was nominated. The women agreed that I would contest the next general election scheduled for late 2016. Just days later the government announced a snap election, effectively wiping out our time to put together an election campaign. We moved ahead anyway with membership numbers now standing at 3,700. We had much confidence that we would secure one of the seven seats in the Tanna open constituency.

With very little time to prepare, I took on the challenge with much confidence. That as a solid membership of women we could succeed, and that even if we failed to win a seat, we would learn valuable lessons from the snap election experience that would better prepare us for the next general elections in 2020. I had so much confidence. I wasn’t thinking of losing; our hopes based on the registration figures signed by women across the island.

Crossing controversial territory

The first obstacle was informing community leaders of our decision to field our own candidate – a woman. Working with a chief that I have close ties to, a community meeting was arranged whereby I would declare and launch my candidacy. No one uttered a word, except a female friend who stood up, and much to my surprise, said ‘I am not in support of women being electoral representatives in parliament, and I am also against the policy of reserving seats for women’. I took this understandably as coming from someone speaking from her heart, but it also confirmed that the notion that women ‘do not belong in parliament’ were not held by men alone.

With no financial backing (other than two small personal contributions totalling 15,000 vatu) I had to dig into my own pockets to fund the campaign. I must say the election process is very expensive, with transportation in Tanna costing 20,000 vatu per day. We hired six public transport vehicles for the campaign.

We managed to visit (and revisit in some cases) 19 communities, speaking with roughly 700 men and women. Our slogan was Hemi Taem! (It is time!).

Taking centre stage during the campaigns was the most challenging. The questions and comments raised by communities were not difficult to answer, but there were also tricky ones coming from those who perceived us to be defying kastom.

‘You have not killed a fly or an ant, how can you prove that you can work like men in parliament. You are nothing but a woman.’

‘Our custom and culture perfectly points out your place – which is to look after the children, and mine (male speaking) is to do the talking. Where is your respect for this kastom? Are you from Australia that you don’t know our kastom? Who has given you this right to contest?’

‘Maybe we can vote for you in the provincial council election, but not to parliament.’

‘Our fear right now is the domestic violence law; we do not want our women to take those laws into their own hands.’

‘We don’t want to vote for women, because we don’t want women to have the right over us men.’

‘We don’t want our women to vote for women. If they do, we will divorce them.’

In a lot of places, prior to our campaign meetings, there would be community meetings most held in the nakamal where ‘consensus’ was often reached for all community members to vote for a particular candidate. In some cases, I wasn’t allowed to go and campaign – even to speak to just the women. In one case, some women called me and said, ‘Mary, please don’t come to our community as you will not be allowed to speak here’.

Discrimination and the threat of violence

The campaign revealed that culture is a main contributor to the limitation of woman’s influence in politics. I’ve seen how a lot of people are reluctant to vote for a woman. We did not receive discrimination from men alone, but women also. The discrimination we received was more on emotional violence. Discrimination against women in the society was very obvious at the time of campaigning and we observed how discrimination was somewhat based on a woman’s age, her marital status, her level of education and economic status. And as such, a woman may not be considered to be valuable or worthwhile if she does not fit the collective representation of both men and women.

Personally, I was able to endure a male-dominated political campaign period, but stories of threats of violence experienced by some women have just been unbearable. There are many of such accounts, ones that I share with a sad heart. This is one woman’s account of the threat she received from her partner the night before the poll.

I was already in bed pretending I had fallen asleep for some hours, but my husband came up and woke me up. He held a knife to my throat and demanded that I tell him who I was going to vote for. I was so afraid, I did not speak. He told me to speak or else he would beat me. I started crying. I was short of breath and was shaking. I cried out, “please help me … someone listening outside, please help me!” But nobody came to my rescue because they were afraid of my husband. He pushed me down, punched me again on my stomach and head, and said he was giving me a chance to speak or else he would beat me up. He knew of my intention to support women in this election. I begged him to let go of my throat or I was going to die, and I promised him that I was going to vote for the candidate of his choosing.

Another woman also had a similar story.

I saw you talking with those women, but I have stated clearly stated my rules and you have to follow them. We are going to vote for a male candidate and not for any woman. If you fail my words and I find out the numbers at our polling station, I will make you pay for it.

Other women were reportedly threatened by their partners to show candidate photos after they had casted their votes to prove they voted for a particular candidate. In some polling station, men threatened to divorce or physically torture their wives if results showed a significant number of women’s votes from that particular polling station.

A way forward

Political parties, as we know, are the most important institutions affecting women’s political participation. Even though our group knew we could have more support (moral and financial) from political parties if we ran under one of them, we still made the hard choice of running as an independent candidate. We had a few reasons for this, with the main one being that bigger political parties filed their candidates in advance, leaving no space for women to contest under their ticket. Secondly, women still have a long way to learn about the processes and lobbying involved in politics.

In spite of the challenges women continue to face, I see a new generation of powerful women flourishing in Tanna. Women with a strong sense of identity and power. Through our journey, many have come to understand that participation in the electoral processes involves much more than just voting. It is time to exercise the democratic rights that have either been ignored or violated over the last 36 years. Through our journey in politics, many have come to appreciate that through political participation women can have the freedom to speak out for the first time in the island’s history, which they’ve done through campaigning, assembling, associating and participating.

I have seen the power of ordinary women who have stood up against injustices to say they are tired. I have seen the faces of those who shed tears because of so much ill-dealing and threatening within their homes and communities. We have started a journey where we will continue to celebrate the united power of women who have taken the first steps to uncovering the multiple forms of discrimination and injustices. We shall continue to seek the empowerment of women to a level where they can think and speak for themselves.

We must not forget that the same laws will apply in the same national parliament and provincial houses of assembly. In the same national and district courtrooms, case law will grow and precedents will continue to be set in the absence of the hard questions that may never get asked about the blatant breaches in our society and adopted system of government.

From 2017 our leaders will (more than ever before) need the knowledge, political will, grace and patience to restore integrity, democracy and the rule of law as a national emergency in order for all else to be rebuilt without exception. The truth is a new government in 2017 will inherit inter-generational debt, a massive deficit and redundant parliamentary rules/standing orders governing important decision-making processes. Not to mention the crumbling sanctity of the National Executive Council (NEC) or cabinet.

They will realise that legislation set up in principle to provide robust governance mechanisms have been misunderstood or ignored by their predecessors. In 2017 a newly elected parliament will discover an exhausted public service, a manipulated police force, an angry defence force, and many broken Papua New Guineans with drought and income starved families and disrupted livelihoods.

Those elected Members of Parliament will find very drained state-owned enterprises, institutions and agencies incapable of operating with only a steady trickle of public funds to deliver wages, health & education or district support according to policies and promises of the past and present. They will find that the much promised revenues from oil and gas have been committed to paying off the current government’s unilateral decisions and therefore debt for unauthorised loans for generations.

New leaders in 2017 will need to navigate a global economic downturn of epic proportions with PNGs development and economic interests at heart. Our new leaders will discover that our broken service delivery system and our overheated economy will need more than elected candidates with tunnel vision.

Those elected will need to be legislators, not aspiring millionaires or public finance managers. Newly elected leaders will require an understanding of serious fiscal discipline, tax and industrial relations reform and economic modelling that reflect PNG’s economic conditions and our revenue-earning potential in sectors other than petroleum and energy.

PNG will need MPs who are humble yet extraordinary thinkers to guide monetary/fiscal, social, cultural and development policy simultaneously to aid a new-look holistic reconstruction strategy focused on understanding that our vast natural resources should never again be left to a single individual who knows no institutional, spiritual, executive or national boundaries. Those new MPs should be held to the universal promise that candidates seek election (and re-election) to be servants to their people not master manipulators of their resources.

All the hopes in online commentary revert to a single assumption that PNG will inevitably have free and fair elections next year. If all we do is dare to dream it’s no longer enough because we will inevitably get what we vote for yet again.

Photo: Sepik Wewak Urban Local Government facebook group

We have been in this situation before

In the mid-nineties the nation had a similar problem with the runway at Bauerfield airport. In the end the government corporatised the airport (it used to be a department) and created Airport Vanuatu Limited (AVL). The idea was that a corporatised AVL would not suffer the same political problems as the former government department. The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) was also created to provide regulatory oversight of the industry.

The government also borrowed money from the European Investment Bank to fix the runway – in theory this loan was to be paid back by the new AVL, which (if run properly) should be profit-making. In reality, however, AVL remained political, was poorly run (in a financial sense) and never re-paid the loan. As a result the government had to reduce the available budget for critical services (e.g. health and education) and infrastructure maintenance to service this and other loans.

There have been sensible solutions on the table before

By about 2008 the developing problems with the management of the airport were well known to technical officials, and a series of solutions were discussed. The most relevant one being to look at combining three critical elements:

• Improve runway maintenance
• Look at a longer term solution for the runway and associated infrastructure required to meet ICAO standards
• Further privatise the AVL via some sort of PPP modality.

A lot of technical work and funding was organised for this via the Ministry of Public Works and by about 2010 funding was available through the IFC, AusAID and others for a combination of grants and, if necessary, a small loan for this program of works.

In the short term the problem is not financial – it is to do with maintenance of the airstrip

If the current airstrip can be shown to be properly maintained it should be enough for all of the current carriers to resume flights – however – for this to happen there will need to be evidence of a proper long term solution. This does not require any sort of a loan, fundamentally, it requires proof of better management. There are some small urgent repairs required on the more heavily used parts of the runway but it should be possible to quickly do this in the short term within existing resources.

A longer term solution does not need to bankrupt the country

There is plenty of evidence that clearly shows Vanuatu cannot expect to service even the current portfolio of external loans, let alone take on more borrowing. So there is little or no sense in borrowing enormous sums that cannot be paid back as all this means is that the future budgets for maintenance, health, education will be cut and so it will only mean the problem gets worse.

However, the most important works are remedial and can be done for a cost of under a few million dollars using concessional financing. More importantly, these funds can then be used to leverage grants (that don’t have to be paid back) to support the long-term management of the airport.

In the medium term a 150 meter buffer zone in the runway strip might also be cheaper than a brand new runway. This will cost some money and need landowner talks, however, it may be the cheapest option that allows for an “instrument approach” which will certainly alleviate many of the concerns of the airlines.

So given all of this is there any way forward?

The immediate priority must be to get a sensible runway maintenance program in place such that airlines can fly into Port Vila. Then the original IFC proposal for further privatisation of AVL should be re-looked at. This is likely to involve a financial restructure of AVL, and this is where the World Bank and others such as IFC could help within the scope of what they have already agreed to do with the government. Rather than lending impossibly large sums to the state they could provide targeted financial and managerial support to the new privately run AVL.

Recent history also shows that the level of representation has decreased alarmingly, with the total vote of winning candidates dropping to a low of 36 per cent in 2012. This figure rebounded slightly this year (41%) partly because fewer candidates ran. However, it still means more people voted for candidates who did not get elected than those who did.

Vanuatu election timeline 1979-2016

With the number of parties contesting the 2016 election (35) at an all time high, it is interesting to note that since independence a total of 33 political groupings (plus independents) have been represented in the national legislature. Of those, 19 have been represented in two or more parliaments. Previous analysis has shown remarkable similarities in the policy platforms of parties, especially those that formed as break away factions of the established independence-era parties.

Share of parliamentary seats

Democracy in Vanuatu is seemingly delivering a kind of micro federalisation. While this is reflective of the reality on the ground, it does not bode well for nation building and presents a significant challenge for parties to consolidate or grow their share of the popular vote. In the most recent election, only four parties secured over five per cent of the popular vote (i.e. total vote for all of their candidates) and most saw their vote share decline from the previous election. Some countries set a minimum threshold of five percent for a party to take a seat in parliament.

Share of popular vote

There seems to be widespread acceptance that the electoral roll is inaccurate and needs updating. The state of the roll means the turn out figures are unreliable. However, when we look at the number of votes cast compared to the last election, it is evident that voter numbers were down across the board.

Votes by constituency

Throughout the campaign we heard many candidates and voters alike discuss the need for political reform. There is a clear need to re-set the system to address the representation and stability issues, and to give the government of the day a mandate to get on with the task of governing the country. The challenge for the political actors is to connect with what the people want, while building a national debate about the development needs of the country – and then for the parties to respond to these needs.

In the meantime, the country awaits the parliamentary vote next week to find out who will be the next prime minister.

Vanuatu Prime Ministers 1980-2016

To the surprise of those seated in the crowded Nitijela chamber, as soon as Senator Silk completed his sentence one person clapped politely and briefly. Gauging by the looks of the audience, perhaps this also was without precedent. Clapping in parliament is a motion that is not prompted. In some parliaments it is frowned upon, in others it is the norm, in some it is allowed in some situations and not in other contexts, in some the Speaker regulates this motion or its variations such as clapping on the sides of the chairs or thumping on the desk or standing ovations or saying “hear hear”. The previous day, as the results of the vote of no-confidence against former President Nemra’s Cabinet were tabulated, Speaker Kedi had astutely interrupted the count. He instructed that no one should clap. During the past two weeks, on many occasions the Speaker had invited a clapping applause for other results and reasons. Some parliamentarians had spontaneously clapped after bold speeches had been made during the debates before and after the vote of no-confidence motion was introduced.

The introduction of the final motion by Senator Silk, with no prompting by the Speaker, was a move that can been viewed as showing a respect not only for the law but also a timely accommodation of the positions held by the two Senators – Note and Riklon (remarkable because both Senators were members of the governing and opposing party to Senator Silk’s). Both Senators had insisted on the Nitijela’s attention and adherence to the Constitutional letter and procedure even if the brief opinions of the relatively young and bashful Acting Attorney General and sort-of-but-not-entirely-convincing Legal Counsel appeared to vary with these interpretations. Senator Riklon had earlier argued politely that according to the Constitution, 14 days had to lapse before another President could be elected. This argument had been overruled by the Speaker, again after the legal opinions of the Legislative Counsel had been recorded. Senator Note had insisted on the casting of the secret ballot. The Senators had persisted even when the Speaker Kedi had plainly cited these opinions as the basis of the Speaker’s impending if not already evident decision on the deemed election of a President by sole nomination. Both soft-spoken Senators requested repeatedly a cautious approach to avoid any ambiguous precedents even if precedents (rightly or wrongly) had already been set in previous elections. Such precedents had been pointed out during the debate. Ironically, one precedent that was contrary to Senator Note’s persistent demand took place when Senator Note had been President!

It can be easily said that both Senators (Ministers at that moment) were deploying a delay-tactic to prolong the life-in-office of the cabinet. However, it can also be suggested that casting a secret ballot in a finale of the electoral process served another purpose. The presidential sole nominee – Dr. Heine was nominated by a self-described less than a fortnight-old coalition. Unprecedented maneuvering, jockeying, shifting and cross-over of party lines, changing membership by number surprising changes in alliances, lobbying by traditional chiefs, the untimely death of an extremely popular high chief presidential candidate, forming of sub-blocs known by colorful descriptions such as traditional twelve solid six fanatic four, claims of buying of membership in parties, forgetting of vows to exclude so-and-so, feuding and solidarity of family, refusals, resignations, ministerial office invitations open until the last minute of the Presidential re-election, etc. had become a well-known and nerve-wracking feature of the political battle for the government during the past month: clearly, loyalties were anything but loyalties; any Senator-voter(s) could change his or her decision at any moment. A secret ballot would colorlessly cast the die, thus making the votes fungible. This is an essence of a democratic free election.

Beyond that, the motion was an expression of an experienced parliamentarian’s intuitive solution to correctly end an impasse that at face value appeared meaningless. Indeed another Senator, Kramer had been quick to fret and seek an immediate dispensation of a “waste time” matter. It was not. Senator Silk’s move also averted notions of a potential legal battle or of a deliberately overlooked procedure in a matter of Constitutional and national importance. It also saved face all around the membership of the Nitijela. These are not trivial facets of the art of the political battle. A save-face tactic is appreciated when battle weary opponents who assuredly are destined to meet each other yet another day are compelled to bluntly face each other with a foregone conclusion.

It is irrelevant whether Senator Silk appreciated or not that Ministers Note and Riklon’s firm stance and demand also covertly allowed for a larger number than 21 senators to vote for President elect (at that moment), Dr. Heine. Nor is it relevant that in a statesman-like move Minister/Senator Note already may have deliberately considered and made space for such a consequence. The result …24, (three more than the predictable 21 votes in favor) itself is relevant. It is a symbolic number that may be optimistically interpreted as if despite the political battles of the past months and weeks some minority number members now accepted the uncomfortable reality of the situation and symbolically said – we are all here, we are willing to move forward and work together.

Rising above partisanship and above party, Senator Silk’s motion, wittingly or not, led to a placated polite procedural election in the Nitijela with Dr. Hilda C. Heine as the elected President. Surely, that final motion deserved an applause; even if only one (just a number) person clapped! After all, when, in an unprecedented moment, as the number goes…if you’re happy and you know it and you really want to show it….clap your hands.

The prevalence of corruption is the direct cause of pervasive poverty in our region. Some may contend that poverty is the cause of corruption. I hold a contrary view. I come from a country richly endowed with natural resources, yet the majority of our people live in abject poverty. Corruption is the direct cause of poverty in my country and the same goes for many Pacific island countries. The failure to meet most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is a testament to that.

The excess effects of corrut to that.

The excess effects of corruption does spread beyond the borders. They take the form of refugees, money laundering and other illicit activities. The digital world has changed the dynamics of the world map so that today, transactions can be conducted at the click of a keyboard or the tap of an iPhone. Our jurisdictional differences are becoming less of a barrier for those wishing to conduct illicit financial transactions.

Today, we are witnessing a growing trend, though not uncommon, whereby those in power use that power to enrich themselves and their cronies at the expense of the people. And when the anti-corruption institutions hold them to account, they refuse to submit. They use their powers and state resources to subjugate anti-corruption measures and avoid scrutiny. Most recently some of the most telling examples of threats to the rule of law, democracy, security and prosperity in our region include:

• The extraordinary efforts to obliterate anti-corruption forces to protect one person in Papua New Guinea;
• The acting President of Vanuatu pardoning himself and 13 other members of parliament after being convicted of bribery, even when the matter is pending sentencing; and
• The bribery scandal involving the Nauruan prime minister, his justice minister and an Australian phosphate company and the alleged actions by the Nauru Government to terminate the visa of the Chief Justice.

We have seen examples of how corruption transcends national borders, for example:

• The forgotten case of Australian companies and advisors implicated in diverting K100 million of PNG Motor Vehicle Insurance Ltd funds;
• The revelations by Australian authorities that at least AUD200 million of PNG corruption proceeds are laundered or invested in Australia every year;
• The recent findings of the Financial Action Task-Force that Australia is becoming a hotspot destination for property investment using illicit funds, mostly coming from Asia-Pacific countries;
• The recent revelations by SBS Dateline program of how Australian lawyers are involved in laundering corruption proceeds into Australia; and
• The recent revelations by Sydney Morning Herald of an Australian oil company, the Australian branch of an international bank and Australian lawyers involved in structuring a predatory loan arrangement.

Many of these examples have highlighted how the people who have been exposed in these corruption scandals have no trouble transferring and living off their ill-gotten gains. With access to Australia, for example, many have access to quality health care and education whilst at home the robbed majority continue to suffer in abysmal conditions.

In saying this, I am also conscious of the fact that in most developing countries, apart from simple survival corruption, most of the high-level corruption are facilitated by and benefit those in power. If corruption-free and good governance are the values and standards we want to see reflected in our neighbourhood, we should live for and fight for their worth. Although it may come at a price. Few may not like it, but the victimised majority will appreciate our efforts. Based on my personal experience, I can vouch for this.

Australia, as member of the G20 and the OECD among others, has obligations under various international treaties, memberships and agreements. Most countries in the Pacific have adopted the UN Convention against Corruption (UNCAC). While progress has been made to establish an APEC Network of Anti-Corruption Authorities and Law Enforcement Agencies, I am unaware of a regional framework in the Pacific Islands Forum to combat corruption and money laundering. Perhaps that may be an agenda for the next forum leaders discussions?

So the question is, when does corruption in one country really become a matter for regional leaders?

One can trumpet the robustness of its own domestic mechanisms but if that ‘robust’ system is not detecting and combating corruption and money laundering more widely, then that system is a problem in itself. Or is it just a case of lacking political will to act?

This is an extract of Mr. Sam Koim’s presentation to the Voices for Justice conference held at Parliament House, Canberra on 13 October 2015.

Accepting to step into his father’s shoes suggests he is prepared to launch his own political career at a young age of 33. And according to reports, he is standing despite his late father’s advice not to follow in his footsteps.

An IT worker with Telco powerhouse, Digicel, young Natapei will pit his wits against the likes of Union of Moderate Parties’ Georgie Calo, Jocelyn Mete, Attorney General Ishmael Kalsakau and a couple others. Both Kalsakau and Mete are known VP supporters, which tells a lot about the political wrangling that has plagued the party since 1989.

However, Natapei junior’s candidacy reflects an increasingly common trend of dynasty politics in Vanuatu where the baton of leadership is often passed on to a next of kin or a close family member, particularly when a leader vacates his/her seat by death.

As a result, it is becoming increasingly hard not to recognise a familiar name after an election: a re-electionist, or relatives of incumbent or former politicians after a major election. I touched on this in 2013, when I recounted some of our own history regarding dynasty politics, demonstrated so clearly when Fr. Lini died, and then in 2013 after the passing of former VP renegade, Harry Iauko, in 2012.

Much of it is to do with local voting behaviour, which does not necessarily consider policy platforms, or what a leader can bring to the national agenda as factors influencing one’s decision.

Rather, local politics is more about personalities and patronage. Kastom often dictates these voting patterns, which means a ni-Vanuatu will place more value on his/her relationship with a certain candidate, regardless of whether or not they are politically adept. Consequently, the tendency has been that voters will vote out of their hearts, rather than their minds particularly during by-elections. Culturally it might be understandable as in some islands, it is quite normal to look to the eldest son as replacement of his father, not necessarily for political reasons, but as far as community organisation goes.

The pattern however, prompts a very important discussion the Vanuatu voting population should be having, because it has a lot of bearing on our democracy and the values we all aspire to achieve: peace, security, justice and socio-economic wellbeing.

While in principle, there might be nothing wrong with dynasty politics, it has the potential of snuffing life out of our democracy, which is supposed to be representative and yet it excludes many, and can create an uneven playing field.

Following in the footsteps of one’s parents is not unacceptable but it can be a barrier because voters do not get to choose based on a candidate’s political aptitude, leadership skills, or policy platforms. Instead their choices are made out of respect, or in certain cases, for political expediency.

The purpose of holding a democratic election, one assumes, is so that voters can exercise their democratic rights of choosing their representatives to parliament. As such, winners are supposed to be those who have earned the trust and confidence of their constituents to represent them in the national legislature because of the values they stand for, or are willing to advocate on their constituent’s behalf despite their own beliefs; and their ability to lead and articulate their people’s interests. It means on election, the onus will be on them to deliver on those basic principles, or face the consequences come the next election. It seems this has not been the case since 1980.

The thinking behind this discussion is: if we are to allow this pattern to continue, then perhaps legislative adjustments are needed to formalise it, rather than institutionalise what is essentially supposed to be a democratic process.

There have been some suggestions in the past that maybe an idea would be for the Electoral Commission to declare the next candidate with the next highest tally, as the natural successor in the event of death, or when someone vacates his or her seat. Or, even better, if political parties can agree to bloc-vote like what they have done in the past – and could do again next month; where parties in power cast their votes for a certain candidate and vice versa, the Opposition for another. Wouldn’t it be more cost-effective if these were provided for within the legislation? This way the country saves money spent on by-elections (with predictable outcomes) and uses those funds more effectively by delivering services to the people.

The way it is, elitist rule could be easily legitimized through current processes — giving the impression that the public has voted, when in reality, electable candidates are seriously limited to a set of individuals and personalities. Often the result becomes obvious sooner or later when key institutions are filled by family members and people with familiar surnames. For countries like Vanuatu that have weak institutions, dynasty politics could very easily lead to cronyism and corruption, which then defeats the whole purpose of an election process.

In addition, an argument could be made that to accept political dynasties means remaining oblivious to an obvious abuse of a weak democratic process that could be easily fixed.

The key point is: Why go through an expensive process when the outcome, as seen with past elections, is a foregone conclusion?

If it is any consolation, political dynasties are not unique to Vanuatu. The USA, for instance, has a well-documented history of it in the last 100 years or so.

Certainly more needs to be done to bring about real political reform that better reflects the country’s social realities and delivers optimum outcomes rather than what the public has witnessed in the last 20 years or so. Until there is some maturity on the part of the country’s leadership to push forward with any political reforms, Port Vila will go about its business as usual on polling day come October 15th.

Late Natapei’s political career was sustained over the course of 32 years because of his leadership skills, humility, strong faith in God, and a nice-guy image rarely seen in a field where most of his competitors would come out swinging. Young Natapei’s challenge would be making those big shoes fit. May the best candidate win!

Today, it is easy to assume that it is a case of ‘the same old story.’ Simply replace Chan with Somare, and Skate with O’Neil. With falling oil prices, the government is short of liquidity and trying to mortgage the future of its people for cash today; the kina is in decline, and the Central Bank holding back foreign currency. High inflation and the effects of another El Nino event are ramping up food prices.

But some things are different now. For starters Port Moresby is a cosmopolitan city, so physically transformed it is barely recognisable from what was only twenty years ago. Despite all of the challenges, the economy has managed to absorb a population that has more than doubled since independence. There is a significant middle class of Papua New Guineans who are educated, vocal and more than capable of both demanding change, and also determining what that change should be. Even a casual glance at social media shows the depth of talent and debate.

Whilst it remains true that much of the development benefits have been focussed on Moresby, and too little outside of the capital, the country remains blessed with immense cultural and mineral wealth. It also remains a country where hope, courage and luck can always improve the situation. The question is whether these ingredients are enough to enable the country to overcome its current challenges?

As always, there is a core group of observers who seem to view the current economic and political malaise as a hopeless situation. Today’s story – whispered in private or told via social media, but never quite openly discussed – is that through the egregious use of the nation’s wealth in order to benefit the few in Waigani, Prime Minister Peter O’Neil has managed to establish the sort of ‘de-facto’ dictatorship nobody thought possible in a Melanesian state. With next to no political opposition at home, the Manus detention centre has been a brilliant mute on Canberra. As has been the notion, held by some in the Australian capital, that a stable semi-authoritarian regime in Port Moresby is preferable to a government that changes often – albeit democratically. No matter how hard the prime minister may prod DFAT, they are simply unable to respond. With such a free hand, O’Neill has managed to enhance his reputation with his regional neighbours. His international standing will continue to be bolstered as PNG prepares to host the APEC summit in 2018.

O’Neill has managed to keep a hold on power by raiding the numerous cash pots available to the government and by mortgaging the country’s future resource base. This strategy has so far enabled the government to run debt defying budget deficits. The plan to fill the current hole is a combination of a half billion dollar foreign currency loan, the sale of shares to landowners in the National Petroleum Company PNG (NPCP) and potential revenue from the sale of Oil Search to Woodside. Any money raised through the takeover over of Sustainable Development Program (SDP) will be a bonus. These funds are necessary to continue the superficial building (and rebuilding) of roads and other infrastructure in the capital and also funding the K10 million district funds overseen by MPs; thereby keeping the crony capitalists and political elite satisfied.

However, in the same way that much of the analysis twenty years ago was overly simplistic and lacking in context so too is this story. For starters it is hard to place the entire blame for the current state of the economy purely on the current government. Many previous administrations pursued similar strategies, just perhaps not as effectively. Also very few economist predicted the rapid decline in commodity prices or the drastic impact of El Nino on agricultural production. Were it not for these factors, some of the current economic constraints, especially in terms of limited liquidity, would not be as severe.

The private sector and the donors, smelling loans, have been falling over themselves to be the lender of choice and have therefore deliberately not been up front with the government for fear of losing business. Australia has been almost totally silent in terms of the underlying economic situation, with the exception of a few advisers within government. The government itself, meanwhile, simply points to recent GDP growth rates as a sign that things will get better. It has been left to a few independent thinkers to point out that ‘you cannot eat GDP growth’ and that current levels of borrowing has a price that the people of Papua New Guinea just cannot afford – inflation.

There is a phrase used amongst Pacific civil servants – policy moonwalking – which, like the famous dance by Michael Jackson, refers to when the policy of government appears to be moving forward, but in fact is actually going backwards. It appears as if O’Neill’s policy moonwalkers have failed to accept and adapt to the radical change in circumstances. Rather they continue to pursue the strategy of relying on short term financing in the vein hope that things will get better. These analysts are correct in that the country still has many long-term assets that can be mortgaged, but they have missed the fact that with oil prices falling so sharply this strategy can actually be a trap – in that the more you borrow now, the more desperately you have to borrow in the future. The price is inflation, which is fuelling the looming crisis. By printing money to finance the massive deficits, the government has reduced the value of the kina, and this is what has made imports such as rice more expensive. While the economists and academics can argue all day, the reality is that what people can afford to eat has drastically decreased. You don’t need to be an economist to forecast the situation – simply ask any Papua New Guinean. The drought and frost in the highlands has made the situation worse, and while the foreign owners of the hydroponic farms might be benefiting, the population are suffering and this will eventually lead to frustration, anger and potentially violence.

It is unlikely the ‘foreign bond’ of half a billion dollars can be issued unless, like the UBS loan, it is secured against a national asset. At this stage it is not clear what that asset would be. In the same way the government’s financial expectations of the sums of money they would receive from the landowners taking an increased equity in NPCP seems far removed from the financial reality, and all indicators are that the landowners are receiving rational private advice in this regard. So with the state owned enterprises seemingly in debt, and the Central Bank and government building up short term liabilities, the most likely outcome is that – despite the long term outlook for the country being sound – in the short term the government will have no money and inflation will get worse. The potential debt burden is made even worse by the hidden liabilities in terms of debts owed by government entities that don’t yet have audited accounts, but which could still be a drain on future budgets.

There will ultimately have to be some sort of political ramification. What the trigger will be nobody knows, but the tension amongst the rural and urban poor is noticeable. The prime minister might have control over the heads of the army and the police, but if civil servants and people are seriously poor – as seems evident now – the people of Papua New Guinea can and will effect democratic change. Whether it be a motion of no confidence, based on the fact that O’Neill can no longer deliver the financing necessary to keep political stability, or a result of the numerous court actions against him, or a massive turnover at the polls – something will have to give.

As the poor increase in numbers and go ever more hungry, while the political elite continue to flaunt their wealth on the streets of Moresby, the real concern is whether this change will be brought about civil or political unrest.

But all credit must be accorded to Port Vila MP and Finance Minister Willie Jimmy for entering an early guilty plea yesterday, which no doubt will count for much in his favour in the final analysis. It is a smart decision on his part, although this must have been a shock to the other 16 defendants. Trial is now set for Monday 7 September.

On Thursday last week, Vanuatu Supreme Court judge Mary Sey made a landmark ruling that all 16 parliamentarians facing corruption charges would stand trial both under the Penal Code and the Leadership Code Act. No public figure in Vanuatu has ever been tried under the Leadership Code Act since its enactment in 1998.

Last week’s ruling means an eventual outcome against the accused MPs could prove damaging as far as the leaders’ political careers are concerned; and catastrophic, as far as the life of the present government goes.

At least five of the accused are cabinet ministers: Deputy Prime Minister Moana Carcasses Kalosil, Finance Minister Willie Jimmy, Public Utilities Minister Tony Nari, Foreign Affairs Minister Serge Vohor, and Lands Minister Paul Telukluk. Among them are the Speaker of Parliament, Marcellino Pipite and Parliamentary Secretaries Silas Yatan and Steven Kalsakau.

Starting next week, Justice Sey will preside over arguably the biggest corruption case ever in Vanuatu. The case concerns 16 parliamentarians – all from the government side – a prominent businessman, eight defence lawyers, and 48 prosecution witnesses.

In 35 years of Vanuatu’s political history, only Ati George Sokomanu, the country’s first president, felt obligated to step down from his leadership duties, when he was reprimanded for a simple road traffic offence some 27 years or so ago. Apart from that, no one else has done it, regardless of allegations levelled against them.

The public in Port Vila are eagerly waiting to see the outcome of the current case, which seems bound to open a new chapter in the country’s political history.

Despite the seriousness of the matter at hand, Vanuatu’s Prime Minister Kilman appears unflinching, nor does he appear to be making any moves to consider the alternatives, among them the opposition’s suggestion that his government voluntarily step aside.

Chances were slim from the beginning that Mr Kilman would consider this option. Cultural norms and history suggest that he may not contemplate resigning for fear of losing face and of the political backlash, especially when elections are less than 18 months or so away. Obviously he would want to continue leading as prime minister into next year’s polls.

Many political hopefuls for the 2016 election fear this option because they are not prepared to be on the campaign trails too soon.

For Mr Kilman, the second option seems to make more sense. Not only would he gain politically by keeping his position as prime minister, but he could also save himself from being accused of watching his own government fall from grace. In any case, he certainly has some tough calls to make as events unfold.

With the trial commencing next week, at the very least three likely scenarios may also unfold.

Firstly, as anticipated, the government, through Electoral Commission has set October 15th as the date for Port Vila to find a replacement for former Prime Minister and Vanua’aku Pati leader, Edward Nipake Natapei who died suddenly last month. But it is also possible that more than just the one seat left vacant by the late leader could be up for grabs, which then throws up further questions over the announcement by the Electoral Commission. Could they have waited a little longer, while monitoring the progress of current events in court? Chances are that at the stroke of Justice Sey’s pen, a completely new scenario might also unfold and authorities would then need to revisit the decision whether or not it makes more sense to conduct separate by-elections, or even declare a snap election, in the event of a dissolution of parliament.

However, even for dissolution to take place, Constitutional provisions require that the president make this call, in ‘consultation’ with the office of the prime minister. In such a scenario, a different issue also arises: in the event of the coalition not being able to hold water, could the prime minister still function in the interim and work with the president on dissolving parliament?

In 1989, during the tumultuous years when the Vanua’aku Pati was beginning to disintegrate, this was exactly the point of the government then led by Fr. Walter Lini, during the infamous sedition case involving Barak Sope and Sokomanu as the former president. Sokomanu had unilaterally decided to dissolve parliament for which Fr. Lini took him to task before Solomon Islands Chief Justice Gordon Ward — flown in as a neutral person to help out in the crisis.

Whatever the result, there’s no doubt that current events have the potential to change irreversibly the complexion of the political landscape here in Vanuatu.

— This article was first published in the Vanuatu Daily Post on 3 September 2015 —

WTO has always prided itself as a member-driven organization. It created its ‘Green Room’ as a means of getting representative views on all issues including its membership. It got to a point, however, where the majority of members: essentially from the developing countries, the least developed countries and small vulnerable states who were the small and marginal global traders, felt that the Green Room was being dominated by the large trading nations. Those being dominated have to await invitations, where logistically possible and convenient, to enter this hallowed ground. Pragmatism has thus been abused for sectional interests.

According to Ambassador Pambagyo, this malpractice continues in Geneva and has worsened. The Green Room has been reduced to the ‘so-called G5-Plus countries’ – comprising the US, the EU, China, India, Brazil, Australia and Japan. The Director-General chairs the restricted meetings. This aberration is further tainted by the fact that the meetings underway in Geneva are convened behind closed doors. The rest of the membership is not allowed in. There is no transparency. Their representatives in Geneva do not even share in any media releases from the closed meetings. They have to get their news through outside means, e.g. through the Washington Trade Daily or the Third World Network’s journal SUNS.

But there is more shenanigan going on in the privacy of the G5-Plus surrounding. According to Ambassador Pambagyo, the developed G5 members are placing increased pressure on the two emerging global traders: China and India, to lower their ambition on market-liberalization of agricultural and industrial goods. For if this can be lowered, then the flexibility being sought by developing countries can then be commensurately aligned at a lower level. This, the G5 members reckon, would still afford policy space for them to continue their domestic subsidization and exportation of subsidized agricultural products. These subsidized exports invariably play havoc to the production and marketing efforts of developing countries that are still trying to develop their primary industries to their full potential in order to integrate fully into the global economy. The ever-resourceful developed country negotiators are justifying their actions as the need for a ‘recalibrated’ approach (the US) or for a ‘simplified’ approach (the EU). All this is done in the name of concluding the Doha Round of trade talks (DDA) that were originally aimed at creating an even playing field for the majority of WTO members – the developing and least developed countries including the small vulnerable economies.

What is happening however, is abuse of trading power by the large trading nations; or the exercise of ‘power politics of negotiations’, as Professor Jane Kelsey puts it in her book: “Serving Whose Interests?” It is nothing new in the context of the WTO. These large global traders are corrupting the multilateral trading system and the WTO specifically. And that is not surprising. “Power corrupts”, as US statesman, Adlai E Stevenson stated in 1963.

And where is the WTO heading? A corrupted system will not survive. The ‘death of multilateralism’ has already been coined. This directly relates to the convolution surrounding the DDA and WTO’s seemingly inability to conclude these talks. From another perspective, Gordon Wong, wrote in ‘The Beginning of World Trade Disorganization’ in January this year. He put this down to the relative decline of US power and its reducing influence and ability in underwriting this multilateral system.

In the light of what is happening in the WTO, greater clarity is now emerging as to the true motives of some of the big players and of the respective slogans they love to bamboozle the general membership of the organization and the world at large with. Before Wong’s paper, Dr Jason Hickel had written in ‘Free Trade and the Death of Democracy’ that “It turns out that ‘free trade’ has very little to do with meaningful human freedom, and rather a lot to do with corporate freedom – the freedom of corporations to extract and exploit without hindrance.”

With the death of multilateralism, observers are seeing an increased growth in plurilateralism and regionalism, e.g. TTIP, TPP, TISA, RCEP etc. This is being touted as a natural response in this process of fracture. However, the ‘power politics of negotiations’ still pervades. As such, we see new expressions of trading power politics. The latest which is creating a buzz around the globe is the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS), under which corporations can take governments to court for any government action that leads to reduction in the profitability of any commodity being marketed by these corporations. Closer to home, PACER Plus may not see the likes of the ISDS provision, however, there is every likelihood that there will be telltales of ‘power politics of negotiations’ in the final legal text (including omissions from the text); a constant reminder that in any FTA negotiations, trading powers, if not moderated with a sense of justice and compassion, will continue to corrupt.

Whether it is disorganization or the death of democracy, the WTO is fracturing; and this is being internally-driven. To attribute what is happening here to the law of entropy may be far-fetched, however, it is the nearest to explaining the disorganization that Wong wrote about and the disorder that is emerging when power politics is exercised for the reaffirmation of the power divide that exists amongst the membership. Furthermore, such reaffirmation acts only as a license for those who wield power to arrogantly derogate from approved principles – in the area of domestic subsidies, for example, whilst disallowing this same opportunity to those without power but who desperately need these subsidies for their livelihood and for sustainable development.

Photo: ABC