On behalf of the Executive Director, Chairman & Board of Directors of the Pacific Institute of Public Policy in Port Vila, Vanuatu…

It is with great pride that I take this opportunity to express the views of many people in our dynamic Melanesian sub-region with whom we have close personal relations, professional links and solid ethnic ties. The Pacific Institute of Public Policy is an independent policy research think tank. We pride ourselves on providing a powerful platform and window for public expression and opinion by unpacking core public policy issues relevant to our security, development and livelihoods as Pacific Islanders. As regular and key interlocutors with a diverse range of decision-makers in our sub-region we acknowledge the Melanesian Spearhead Group as a core and strategic asset to our development agendas and the benefits to our people.

I speak as an individual when I say that the economic dynamism of our member states and single territory is changing our political landscape also. You our Melanesian Spearhead Group leaders have achieved consensus where speculation and innuendo could have undermined the historic, mature and inclusive path you have chosen on a range of matters from MSG connectivity to finance and economic issues. Private sector development, law enforcement, sports, social policy, environment, disaster relief, youth, gender and ongoing trade negotiations amongst our member states continues to reveal the uniqueness of our underpinning ethnic ties and cultural values that embolden our political, economic and collective sense of ourselves. Regionally a shift is occurring with ambitious plans to transform the regional architecture to facilitate regional integration and cooperation, much of that will be influenced heavily by the conditions and decisions that emerge from this sub-regional bloc.

The freedoms within that paradigm available to me as a Papua New Guinean, has meant that I can live as a Melanesian in a neighbouring country with certain privileges and rights assisted by improvements in technology and effective transportation routes, customary privilege and language links. Each of these traits and criteria has without a doubt influenced the way we have and will negotiate aid, governance and trade with our development partners. These same features will inform and guide the management of our vast natural and human resources and promote further political and economic links influenced and strengthened by the certainty of our Melanesian ties. Most recently Air Niugini’s direct flights between Vanuatu and PNG has made MSG Connectivity a reality. Those opportunities also provide the timeliness and space for us to contribute meaningfully to international development agendas and strategies with a regional understanding and a clear localized impression of our institutional arrangements, traditional structures and peculiar customary nuance so relevant to how we are measured and discussed globally.

As a Melanesian designing strategies for a regional think tank I have critically examined our individual economic growth and our collective dynamism as a bloc with few opponents and vast human and natural resources. We are regularly criticized, under-estimated and somewhat over-analyzed as Melanesians. Cyclone Pam a recent natural disaster of epic proportions claimed lives and destroyed livelihoods but in true Melanesian spirit, it did not deprive our cousins the ni-Vanuatu of their strong familial and kinship ties that helped the relief effort in ways unimaginable in other parts of the world given capacity and resource constraints. In our sub-region and in my country in particular the transitioning autonomous region of Bougainville has just proudly celebrated the outcome of a successful election that re-installed one of Papua New Guinea’s founding fathers Chief Dr John Momis, as the President-elect of the Autonomous Bougainville Government. Yes peaceful transitions are possible and in fact achievable encased in a solid peace agreement and guided by unwavering political and customary leadership, as we’ve witnessed there – even after a solid decade of conflict amongst our own people. In our sub-region alone extraordinary examples of journeys to self-determination and self-reliance are evident.

My father the Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare may not have foreseen the full economic potential of the diverse country he was leading to political independence 40 years ago in 1975 but he understood the essential nature of human rights and political freedom to genuine democracy and self-determination, on our own terms in our own time. Today with political independence Papua New Guinea continues to rise above its challenges bound by our reconciliatory ways that are undervalued and over-simplified by outsiders – we have not been alone in this predicament. As a sub-regional bloc whose relevance has been questioned in various forms, you as Melanesian leaders have allowed more of our ethnically linked people to share in the value of rights and privileges only available when our history and current political context are truly considered.

Importantly, the acknowledgement of the sovereignty of the Republic of Indonesia in the form of its approved Associate Membership to the MSG will allow the opportunity for cooperation and compatibility amongst their culturally diverse society and leadership. Finally, Congratulations on your historic and inclusive deliberations yesterday. You have handed the greatest tool for many sustainable options to our Melanesian cousins in West Papua – you have given them a voice.

Thank you.

Last week marked the first time the indigenous people of West Papua were not entirely defeated. And that, in itself, is a victory.

Thousands gathered to celebrate in Timika and elsewhere in the western half of the island of Papua. Praise for Manasseh Sogavare’s depiction of the decision as a ‘test’ of Melanesia’s respect for human rights was widespread. Domestically, his role in the decision seems to have bolstered his standing as a statesman and leader.

But a more dry-eyed look at the process reveals a cost that will undoubtedly prove quite high for proponents of West Papuan independence. David Robie’s depiction of Papua New Guinea and Fiji’s stance on the issue as a ‘betrayal’ is starker than many others, but it’s not wrong.

Voreqe Bainimarama’s disingenuous insistence that Indonesia’s territorial integrity cannot be challenged begs the question of the legitimacy of Indonesia’s continuing occupation—one which, notably, the UN has still to answer. Likewise, Peter O’Neill’s insistence on ‘mandated’ representation for the Melanesian peoples of West Papua would be laughable if it weren’t so callous. The whole reason that the people of West Papua are seeking legitimacy through the MSG is because they are disenfranchised at home.

Sato Kilman took advantage of the clouded complexion of the domestic political scene to keep his proverbial head down, sending only a senior administrator to the Honiara summit. In fairness to him, from a tactical perspective he really had no choice. From a strategic perspective, his handling of the issue could only leave him weakened. Social media commentary in the Solomons was particularly unkind, portraying Vanuatu’s PM as lacking the nouse to stand with Mr Sogavare, letting down West Papua ‘at its hour of greatest need.’

Indonesia’s victory, especially here in Vanuatu, has clearly been sullied by the persistence of the issue, and by its ability to galvanise Melanesian public opinion regardless of political affiliation. Even those closest to Mr Kilman were forced into ‘softly-softly’ rhetoric, claiming ardent-but-pragmatic support for the people of West Papua.

In practical terms, raising Indonesia to associate member status—above that of the ULMWP—goes a long way to ensuring that the MSG will remain inert in the face of pressure to take a stand on independence. In moral terms, the extent of the ULMWP’s victory should not be underestimated.

Merely by playing a part in the conversation, they have mobilised hundreds of thousands of sympathisers at home and throughout the region. Support for independence is undoubtedly stronger and more uncompromising in Solomon Islands now, and it’s becoming more and more overt in the Papuan provinces as well. West Papua Media released a photo recently, apparently showing thousands of people in Timika celebrating the ULMWP’s ascendancy last Friday.

And, in a pattern that we’ve seen again and again, increasing oppression seems to be offering diminishing returns for Indonesia. In spite of the military’s desire to undercut Joko Widodo’s efforts to enact at least modest reforms, repressive tactics have not stopped the ever-increasing flow of coverage coming from the afflicted area. Informal and traditional media sources reported hundreds of arrests in the run-up to the vote, but that did not prevent the ULMWP from gathering what they claimed were 150,000 signatures on a petition legitimising their status as representatives. Nor did it prevent spontaneous scenes of jubilation when their membership was announced.

Equally important, Indonesia was not able to achieve an unalloyed victory in Vanuatu. In order to succeed, they needed to demonstrate that the cost of support for West Papua was losing office. While they did succeed in hamstringing one of the strongest proponents of West Papuan independence at a critical moment, the resulting furore has made the issue of independence into a political litmus test. No politician would now dare to declare anything short of unalloyed support for independence. West Papua is certain to become a core platform item in Vanuatu’s 2016 election campaign.

Arguably, West Papua is reaching a point in its political history similar to that of Black America in the years leading up to the march in Selma. Increasingly overt and untenable state violence is working against itself now. Indonesia can no longer avoid a painful but necessary confrontation with its own behaviour.

It may yet be years before a peaceful and practical resolution is even possible, let alone within our collective grasp. But Doctor King famously claimed that the arc of history bends toward justice. And here is evidence that it does.

For the indigenous peoples of West Papua, defeat is now unthinkable. And anything else, no matter how small, can only be victory.

No matter how we slice and dice the issue of West Papuan independence, it always comes down to this: Do the indigenous peoples of a distinct and discrete land mass have the democratic right to self-determination or not?

The answer, according to international law and standards, is an unequivocal yes.

Even a cursory examination of history reveals that Indonesia has systematically ignored and subverted the desires of the people who share the island of Papua with their cultural and ethnic brethren and sistren in Papua New Guinea. They have oppressed these people using military force, and their policies in the region have from the beginning been designed to silence the voice of the indigenous people there.

Indonesian president Joko Widodo’s protestations notwithstanding, there is no free press in the Papuan provinces. Police and military continue to claim in the face of incontrovertible evidence that there is no unrest. And still they claim that even advocating for independence is a crime. Attending a peaceful demonstration is considered grounds for arrest and incarceration. Political activity can get you tortured or killed. Virtually all of the independence leaders living in exile have faced systematic persecution extending across borders. After he escaped prison and fled for his life, Benny Wenda faced years of forced immobility because of a flagrantly erroneous Interpol ‘red notice’, which falsely accused Mr Wenda of arson and murder.

Just last month, Mr Wenda was denied entry into the United States following an interview with US Homeland Security personnel. No reason was provided at the time. Presumably, the terrorist watch-list, or a similar international mechanism, is being used to curtail his visibility on the world stage.

It needs to be said that Jokowi, and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono before him, would do more if they could. But the plain truth is that civilian rule of law does not extend to the Papuan provinces. These frontier areas are the under the hegemony of the Indonesian military. The wealth they derive from this island is such that they are content to conduct what has been characterised as a ‘slow-motion genocide’ in order to perpetuate their own prosperity.

It’s despicable, frankly. But nobody seems to have either the power or the political will to end this tyranny. One can argue realpolitik, and claim that Indonesia is moving in the right direction, but it’s clear that politicians in Jakarta allow these depredations to continue on Melanesian peoples even while they take great strides to protect their ethnically Asian populations.

In editorial pages across the region, commentators are writhing and contorting themselves to try to find a dignified, elevated expression of the pending decision: Should the Melanesian Spearhead Group recommend full membership for the United Movement for the Liberation of West Papua? Will they do it?

The answer to each question is agonisingly simple: Yes, they should; and no, they will not.

Indonesia has already won this round. They won on the day that Voreqe Bainimarama reiterated that Indonesia’s territorial integrity was inviolate. They won doubly when he recommended them for associate membership in the MSG, a move that effectively kills the prospect of any dialogue concerning West Papuan independence in this forum.

The MSG operates on consensus. If there is no agreement, there is no action. Given the opposing stances that Vanuatu and Fiji have taken concerning the ULMWP, no compromise—let alone consensus—seems possible. And given the recent rise to power of Sato Kilman, widely considered to be Indonesia’s cats-paw in Vanuatu, membership for Indonesia is not out of the question.

Regional commentators and political figures wax poetic about the need for dialogue and inclusion. They ignore the rather inconvenient fact that West Papua’s MSG bid is a result of the fact that dialogue within Indonesia is not only impossible, it’s frequently fatal to those who attempt it.

It’s frankly infuriating to see the namby-pamby linguistic contortions that some of those involved have engaged in. Solomon Islands prime minister Manasseh Sogavare’s championship-level equivocation, advocating for observer status for the ULMWP and membership for Indonesia, simply closes the coffin and hands the nails to Indonesia. PNG prime minister Peter O’Neill’s ability to swallow his outrage over human rights abuses seems to increase right alongside his ability to attract Indonesian business interests.

But worst of all is Vanuatu’s deputy prime minister Moana Carcasses, who only last year made history with his presentation of West Papua’s plight to the United Nations. Now, he is reportedly professing that the issue is a difficult one, and that understanding and patience need to prevail.

Turned away, again.

The MSG cannot move out of this morass if it won’t speak clearly about the situation. There is a prima facie case for West Papuan membership in the MSG. If the fact that the chair is currently held by the New Caledonian independence movement weren’t evidence enough, then the words of support from MSG founding member Sir Michael Somare should suffice.

But ULMWP membership is unacceptable to Indonesia. And it has played its hand with care. Ensuring that even Australia did not remain on the sidelines, it prodded and pulled at everyone involved, and got the result that it wanted.

If the MSG is to retain even an iota of credibility, the only line that it can honestly take now is to admit that it cannot usefully function as a forum for discussions concerning Melanesian decolonialisation, because it lacks the strength to resist the overwhelming power of its neighbours.

It’s a fact: Melanesia is weak. There’s no shame in saying so. Indonesia is powerful—powerful enough even to give Australia pause. Indonesia has the will and the political and material resources necessary to ensure that West Papuan independence remains merely a dream for years yet to come. Likewise, armed resistance to an utterly ruthless military cannot succeed. The days of the OPM are past—if they ever existed.

The sooner we come to terms with these truths, the sooner ULMWP can begin developing effective tactics to counteract them. Those of us in Melanesia owe them at least that much.

In a speech during a summit of national leaders, Mr O’Neill said it was time to speak about the oppression of ‘our brothers and sisters in West Papua’.

‘Sometimes, we forget our own families, our own brothers, especially those in West Papua. I think as a country, the time has come to speak for our people about the oppression there. Pictures of brutality of our people appear daily on the social media and yet, we take no notice. We have the moral obligation to speak for those who are not allowed to talk. We must be the eyes for those who are blindfolded.’

‘Again, Papua New Guinea as a regional leader, we must take the lead in having mature discussions, with our friends and more so, in an engaging manner.’

PM O’Neill’s comments follow the application by the newly unified West Papuan movement, the United Liberation Movement of West Papua (ULMWP), which on Wednesday resubmitted its application for membership to the MSG. The afternoon ceremony at the MSG Secretariat in Port Vila made it clear that this was not to be a quiet handing over of prepared documents to the reception desk. The Secretariat laid on a red carpet welcome for the gathered West Papuan leaders with full kastom and encouraging words by Secretariat staff. Leaders on all sides were visibly moved by event, following emotional speeches by the ULMWP Secretary General Octo Mote and Benny Wenda who said “we have struggled for more than 50 years to get to this day”.

As part of the ceremony, ULMWP leader Octo Mote did not hand the application directly to MSG Director General Peter Forau, but to Vanuatu’s deputy Prime Minister Ham Lini, in recognition of Vanuatu’s strong support in their struggle. Mr Lini then formally handed the documents to Mr Forau on behalf of the ULMWP and Vanuatu government.

Melanesian kastom was on full display; gifts of woven mats and string bags were exchanged, pigs were killed and a feast prepared, traditional dancers and tam tam drums rang out and prayers were offered up for the West Papuan cause.

Now it is up to the leaders of PNG, Vanuatu, Fiji, Solomon Islands and the FLNKS of New Caledonia to decide on bringing the West Papuans into the Melanesian family. It has been a divisive issue for many years and Indonesia has done all it can to split regional solidarity by offering all kinds of inducements to national leaders. At varying times, PNG, Fiji and Solomon Islands have all succumbed to Indonesian ‘sugar’, while Vanuatu and the Kanaks of New Caledonia have remained solidly behind the Papuans.

West Papua’s membership will be decided at a meeting of regional leaders in the Solomon Islands to be held in June, however, whispers from the MSG Secretariat suggest that the issue may be decided even earlier with talk of an imminent meeting of leaders on this issue alone.

Few underestimate Indonesia’s ability to work behind the scenes to frustrate regional solidarity on this issue, and much will depend on PNG and Fiji’s leaders agreement. Indonesia dangles the carrot of ASEAN membership to PNG, while Fiji has found it useful to forge closer ties with Jakarta during its stoush with Australia and New Zealand. Yet even these two seem to be finding it harder to justify supporting Indonesia when it is doing so little to change its brutal policies in West Papua. The killings continue and newly elected President Jokowi has offered little more than rhetoric in his bid to woo the West Papuans after decades of neglect and oppression. Foreign media remain banned despite pledges from Jokowi to change this during his election campaign.

PNG’s strong statement on human rights in West Papua does not directly endorse the ULMWP application, but it does send a signal that Indonesia cannot continue with business as usual. Cynics might link Prime Minister O’Neill’s comments to the fact that his 30 month grace-period as PM is over now and he needs the support of as many MPs as he can get to avoid any looming motions of no-confidence. Many of PNG’s MPs are pro-West Papuan, including Port Moresby Governor Powes Parkop, so the West Papuan issue is beginning to have domestic ramifications in PNG. There may also be an element of PNG trying to claw back some regional leadership given Vanuatu’s bold leadership on this issue and Fiji’s growing diplomatic clout in the international arena, having recently hosted both the Indian and Chinese presidents. There has been some on-going competitiveness and even hostility between PNG and Fiji over the past year on a variety of issues.

Pressure is on Fiji’s Prime Minister Bainimarama now to show whether he values Melanesian solidarity and decolonisation above a pragmatic relationship with Indonesia, which has put him at odds within the region.

ULMWP Sec Gen Mote believes that “the Melanesian family of nations is not complete without West Papua”, something endorsed by Vanuatu’s deputy PM Lini on the day. During the handover ceremony, Mr Lini quoted his brother, Vanuatu’s founding father, Fr. Walter Lini, who said decades ago: ‘Vanuatu is not totally free until other colonized people in the region are politically freed.’

Whether the rest of Melanesia agrees is soon to be tested again.